Brent Oil Down 5% on Recession Fears

oil crude

Brent oil is down 5.08% at $85.76 hitting the lowest level since January 25, 2022, as recession fears spread across all asset classes.  West Texas Intermediate crude oil is giving up 6.24% at $78.26 a level that we haven’t seen since January 10, 2022. Meanwhile, stock markets across the globe are under heavy selling pressure. Nasdaq is down 2.11%, S&P 500 is 2.29% lower while the Dow Jones Industrial average gives up 2.17% at 29452.

Oil prices were supported yesterday after Putin’s order for partial mobilization but a hawkish Fed increased investors’ fears that the global economy will not avoid the recession. Investors believe that the Fed Funds rate will reach 4.50% to 4.75% in 2023. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) raised interest rates by 75 basis points to 0.50% ending seven years of negative interest rates while the Bank of England (BOE) also raised interest rates by 50 basis points to 2.25%.

Business activity in the eurozone contracted for the third month in a row. The S&P Global PMI in September dropped to 48.2 from 48.9 in August enhancing the views of some analysts that the recession has already started.

OPEC in the September monthly report noted that the global oil demand in 2022 remains unchanged at 3.1 million barrels per day, for 2023 the organization forecasts oil demand to be 2.7 million barrels per day.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis

Brent crude oil has resumed the bearish trend after the short break offered by Putin and has now reached nine-month lows. Sellers are in full control and a move lower can’t be ruled out.  Initial support stands at $84.20, the lows from January 14, 2022, while a violent break below will drive the price down to January lows at $77.

On the upside, the first resistance awaits at $90.81 the daily high.  More sellers will be met at $93.20 the high from September 21st. The 50-day moving average is the target that bulls need to achieve in order to regain control.   

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