EURUSD Down 130 Pips on Strong DXY

EURUSD _2023-01-03

EURUSD slumps in early European trading as traders return to their offices after the New Year festivities. Euro is down 1.11% at 1.0546 hitting the lowest level since December 13.

The common currency is under pressure despite the positive macro data from Germany where the Unemployment Change dropped by 13,000 below the forecasts of +15,000. The Unemployment rate dropped to 5.5% while the Saxony December CPI reported at 8.7% well below the November reading of 9.9% (YoY).

From Asia, the China Caixin Manufacturing PMI for December was reported at 49 slightly above the expectations of 48.8 but below the previous reading of 49.4.

ECB Member Joachim Nagel in an interview said that the ECB must take additional measures to stop rising expectations of futures prices and return the inflation at the 2% target.

Analysts expect the terminal rate to reach 3.5% in 2023 while for the U.S. interest rates terminal rates are estimated at 5%.

EURUSD Important Technical Levels

EURUSD breached today the 20-day simple moving average cancelling the recent bullish momentum for the pair. The first support for EURUSD awaits at 1.0373 the 50-day SMA. a break below might attract more sellers for a move down to the 100-day moving average at 1.0133.

On the upside, initial resistance stands at 1.0683 on the daily top. A break above would face selling pressure at 1.0699 the high from yesterday’s trading session. Bulls would be in full charge in case of the price moves above the recent high at 1.0736 from December 15.

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The week start with risk-on sentiment as investors speculate after the NFP data that Fed will not be aggressive on rate hikes. Inflationary pressures are weakening and so the focus this week will be on the CPI figures