A critical week starts on Monday with four major central banks Fed, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank announcing their policy decisions while the U.S. CPI figure will play an important role in the Feds decision.
Analysts are expecting Fed to raise rates by 50 basis points to 4.25%-4.5% on December 14. The central bank has already raised interest rates by 375 basis points from 0%-0.25% to 3.75% to 4%. The markets are looking for a terminal rate of 5% but strong labour data has shifted expectations slightly higher in the previous week.
Monday, December 12
The focus on Monday will be on the British GDP outcome with expectations month over month for -0.1%, the previous reading was at -0.6%. The manufacturing production year over year is expected at -6.3%, the previous reading was at -5.8%.
Consensus Previous
| 01:50 | JPY | BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions Index (QoQ)(Q4) | 0.1 | 1.7 | |||
| 01:50 | JPY | Producer Price Index (MoM)(Nov) | 0.5% | 0.6% | |||
| 01:50 | JPY | Producer Price Index (YoY)(Nov) | 8.9% | 9.1% | |||
| N/A | AUD | ANZ Job Advertisements(Oct) | -0.7% | -0.5% | |||
| 02:30 | AUD | ANZ Job Advertisements(Nov) | – | – | |||
| 08:00 | JPY | Machine Tool Orders (YoY)(Nov) | – | -5.4% | |||
| 09:00 | GBP | Goods Trade Balance(Oct) | £-20.894B | £-15.656B | |||
| 09:00 | GBP | Gross Domestic Product (MoM)(Oct) | -0.1% | -0.6% | |||
| 09:00 | GBP | Index of Services (3M/3M)(Oct) | -0.1% | 0% | |||
| 09:00 | GBP | Industrial Production (MoM)(Oct) | -0.3% | 0.2% | |||
| 09:00 | GBP | Industrial Production (YoY)(Oct) | -4.2% | -3.1% | |||
| 09:00 | GBP | Manufacturing Production (MoM)(Oct) | -0.1% | 0% | |||
| 09:00 | GBP | Manufacturing Production (YoY)(Oct) | -6.3% | -5.8% | |||
| 09:00 | GBP | Total Trade Balance(Oct) | – | £-3.135B | |||
| 09:00 | GBP | Trade Balance; non-EU(Oct) | £-11.309B | £-8.551B | |||
| 18:30 | USD | 3-Month Bill Auction | – | 4.27% | |||
| 18:30 | USD | 6-Month Bill Auction | – | 4.57% | |||
| 20:00 | USD | 10-Year Note Auction | – | 4.14% | |||
| 20:00 | USD | 3-Year Note Auction | – | 4.605% | |||
| 21:00 | USD | Monthly Budget Statement(Nov) | – | $-88B | |||
| N/A | NZD | REINZ House Price Index (MoM)(Nov) | – | 0.2% | |||
| 22:25 | CAD | BoC’s Governor Macklem speech | |||||
| 23:45 | NZD | Food Price Index (MoM)(Nov) | 0.1% | 0.8% | |||
Monday’s earnings reports: ORCL STCN VALU BLBD GTH SIF. Analysts expect Oracle (ORCL) to report earnings of $1.18 in the third quarter,
Tuesday, December 13
Tuesday sees the release of the November CPI report, which is expected at 0.3% in the month-on-month rate, while in the year-on-year analysts expect CPI at 7.3%. A softer figure will enhance the speculation for rate cuts by the end of 2023. If the forecasts are correct, then would be the lowest CPI reading since the beginning of the year, while it will be the fifth consecutive month of slowing yearly growth. CPI hit a 41-year high on June 2022 with a reading of 9.1%.
In Great Britain, the ILO Unemployment rate for October is expected unchanged compared to the previous month at 3.6%.
From Eurozone, we have the CPI which is expected at 10% on a yearly basis and at -0.5% on a monthly basis. Also, analysts expect that the ZEW survey for the Eurozone will point to further deterioration.
Consensus Previous
| 02:30 | AUD | National Australia Bank’s Business Conditions(Nov) | 20 | 22 | |||||||
| 02:30 | AUD | National Australia Bank’s Business Confidence(Nov) | 5 | 0 | |||||||
| 08:30 | EUR | Nonfarm Payrolls (QoQ)(Q3) | 0.4% | 0.4% | |||||||
| 09:00 | GBP | Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr)(Oct) | 5.7% | 5.7% | |||||||
| 09:00 | GBP | Average Earnings Including Bonus (3Mo/Yr)(Oct) | 5.4% | 6% | |||||||
| 09:00 | GBP | Claimant Count Change(Nov) | -13.3K | 3.3K | |||||||
| 09:00 | GBP | Claimant Count Rate(Nov) | – | 3.9% | |||||||
| 09:00 | GBP | ILO Unemployment Rate (3M)(Oct) | 3.6% | 3.6% | |||||||
| 09:00 | EUR | Consumer Price Index (MoM)(Nov) | -0.5% | -0.5% | |||||||
| 09:00 | EUR | Consumer Price Index (YoY)(Nov) | 10% | 10% | |||||||
| 09:00 | EUR | Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)(Nov) | 0% | 0% | |||||||
| 09:00 | EUR | Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)(Nov) | 11.3% | 11.3% | |||||||
| 11:00 | EUR | Industrial Output s.a. (MoM)(Oct) | -0.3% | -1.8% | |||||||
| 11:00 | EUR | Industrial Output w.d.a (YoY)(Oct) | 1.2% | -0.5% | |||||||
| 11:30 | GBP | Financial Stability Report | |||||||||
| 11:30 | GBP | FPC Meeting Minutes | |||||||||
| 11:30 | GBP | FPC Statement | |||||||||
| 11:40 | EUR | 3-Month Letras Auction | – | 1.369% | |||||||
| 11:40 | EUR | 9-Month Letras Auction | – | 2.363% | |||||||
| 12:00 | EUR | ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment(Dec) | -67.2 | -38.7 | |||||||
| 12:00 | EUR | ZEW Survey – Current Situation(Dec) | -63.9 | -64.5 | |||||||
| 12:00 | EUR | ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment(Dec) | -48.1 | -36.7 | |||||||
| 13:00 | USD | NFIB Business Optimism Index(Nov) | – | 91.3 | |||||||
| 13:30 | EUR | Current Account n.s.a.(Oct) | €7.5B | €14.8B | |||||||
| 15:30 | USD | Consumer Price Index (MoM)(Nov) | 0.3% | 0.4% | |||||||
| 15:30 | USD | Consumer Price Index (YoY)(Nov) | 7.3% | 7.7% | |||||||
| 15:30 | USD | Consumer Price Index Core s.a(Nov) | – | 299.47 | |||||||
| 15:30 | USD | Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)(Nov) | 0.6% | 0.3% | |||||||
| 15:30 | USD | Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)(Nov) | 6.4% | 6.3% | |||||||
| 15:30 | USD | Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM)(Nov) | – | ||||||||
| 15:55 | USD | Redbook Index (YoY)(Dec 9) | – | 5.7% | |||||||
Tuesday’s earnings reports: BHP LEGN BRZE HEXO GTH ABM
Wednesday, December 14 – Fed Day
Wednesday is a big day for markets as the Fed will announce its policy rate decision and will give hints about the future path of interest rates. Markets expect that the last FOMC meeting of the year will deliver a 50 basis points hike while the focus will be on the press conference looking for hints about the terminal rate which is now expected at 5% and validation of the market expectations for rate cuts in 2023. The recent strong fundamental data in my view will not support the expectations for rate cuts in 2023.
In Britain, the November CPI will be released and the expectations are for the monthly reading at 1.2% while for the yearly reading the forecasts are at 11.5%, the previous reading was at 11.1%.
Consensus Previous
| 04:30 | JPY | Industrial Production (MoM)(Oct) | – | – | -2.6% | ||||||
| 04:30 | JPY | Industrial Production (YoY)(Oct) | – | – | 3.7% | ||||||
| 07:00 | GBP | Consumer Price Index (MoM)(Nov) | – | 1.2% | 2% | ||||||
| 07:00 | GBP | Consumer Price Index (YoY)(Nov) | – | 11.5% | 11.1% | ||||||
| 07:00 | GBP | Core Consumer Price Index (YoY)(Nov) | – | 6.6% | 6.5% | ||||||
| 07:00 | GBP | Retail Price Index (MoM)(Nov) | – | 1.5% | 2.5% | ||||||
| 07:00 | GBP | Retail Price Index (YoY)(Nov) | – | 14.3% | 14.2% | ||||||
| 07:30 | CHF | Producer and Import Prices (MoM)(Nov) | – | 0.4% | 0% | ||||||
| 07:30 | CHF | Producer and Import Prices (YoY)(Nov) | – | 4.8% | 4.9% | ||||||
| 08:00 | EUR | Consumer Price Index (MoM)(Nov) | – | -0.1% | -0.1% | ||||||
| 08:00 | EUR | Consumer Price Index (YoY)(Nov) | – | 6.8% | 6.8% | ||||||
| 08:00 | EUR | Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)(Nov) | – | -0.5% | -0.5% | ||||||
| 08:00 | EUR | Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)(Nov) | – | 6.6% | 6.6% | ||||||
| 09:30 | GBP | DCLG House Price Index (YoY)(Nov) | – | 12.5% | 9.5% | ||||||
| 10:00 | EUR | Industrial Production s.a. (MoM)(Oct) | – | 0% | 0.9% | ||||||
| 10:00 | EUR | Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY)(Oct) | – | 3.7% | 4.9% | ||||||
| 12:00 | USD | MBA Mortgage Applications(Dec 9) | – | – | -1.9% | ||||||
| 13:30 | USD | Export Price Index (MoM)(Nov) | – | 0.7% | -0.3% | ||||||
| 13:30 | USD | Export Price Index (YoY)(Nov) | – | 6.4% | 6.9% | ||||||
| 13:30 | USD | Import Price Index (MoM)(Nov) | – | 0.2% | -0.2% | ||||||
| 13:30 | USD | Import Price Index (YoY)(Nov) | – | 2.6% | 4.2% | ||||||
| 13:30 | CAD | Manufacturing Sales (MoM)(Oct) | – | -0.2% | 0% | ||||||
| 15:30 | USD | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change(Dec 9) | – | – | -5.187M | ||||||
| 19:00 | USD | Fed Interest Rate Decision | – | – | 4% | ||||||
| 19:00 | USD | Fed’s Monetary Policy Statement | |||||||||
| 19:00 | USD | FOMC Economic Projections | |||||||||
| 19:30 | USD | FOMC Press Conference | |||||||||
| 21:45 | NZD | Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)(Q3) | – | -1.9% | 1.7% | ||||||
| 21:45 | NZD | Gross Domestic Product (YoY)(Q3) | – | 1.9% | 0.4% | ||||||
Wednesday’s earnings reports: LEN TCOM SID NEXT WEBR
Thursday, December 15 – ECB – BOE – SNB
Three major central banks will deliver their policy decisions on Thursday. ECB is expected to hike interest rates by 50 basis points, but in the last few days, the 75 basis points have returned to the table.
Bank of England is expected for the ninth consecutive meeting to raise rates by 50 bps to 3.5%.
Swiss National Bank will also expected to raise rates by 50 basis points. In the September meeting, SNB raised rates by 75 bps, but as the inflation dropped to 3% the central bank will not proceed with another giga hike.
US retail sales are expected to contract by -0.2% in November after a strong reading of 1.3% in October. The industrial production estimates point to a drop of 0.1% which will mark he second consecutive month of contraction.
In Australia the focus will be on the Unemployment rate which is forecasted at 3.3%, the previous reading was at 3.4%.
| 00:00 | AUD | Consumer Inflation Expectations(Dec) | 5.7% | 6% | ||||||
| 00:30 | AUD | Employment Change s.a.(Nov) | 46.5K | 32.2K | ||||||
| 00:30 | AUD | Full-Time Employment(Nov) | – | 47.1K | ||||||
| 00:30 | AUD | Part-Time Employment(Nov) | – | -14.9K | ||||||
| 00:30 | AUD | Participation Rate(Nov) | 66.6% | 66.5% | ||||||
| 00:30 | AUD | Unemployment Rate s.a.(Nov) | 3.3% | 3.4% | ||||||
| 02:00 | CNY | Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (YoY)(Nov) | 5.8% | 5.8% | ||||||
| 02:00 | CNY | Industrial Production (YoY)(Nov) | 4.4% | 5% | ||||||
| 02:00 | CNY | Retail Sales (YoY)(Nov) | 1% | -0.5% | ||||||
| 07:00 | EUR | Wholesale Price Index (MoM)(Nov) | 1.1% | -0.6% | ||||||
| 07:00 | EUR | Wholesale Price Index (YoY)(Nov) | 14.7% | 17.4% | ||||||
| 07:45 | EUR | Business Climate in Manufacturing(Dec) | 102 | 101 | ||||||
| 07:45 | EUR | Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (MoM)(Nov) | – | 0.5% | ||||||
| 07:45 | EUR | Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY)(Nov) | – | 7.1% | ||||||
| 07:45 | EUR | Inflation ex-tobacco (MoM)(Nov) | – | 1% | ||||||
| 08:30 | CHF | SNB Interest Rate Decision | – | 0.5% | ||||||
| 12:00 | GBP | BoE Asset Purchase Facility | – | – | ||||||
| 12:00 | GBP | BoE Interest Rate Decision | 3.5% | 3% | ||||||
| 13:15 | EUR | ECB Monetary Policy Decision Statement | ||||||||
| 13:15 | EUR | ECB Rate On Deposit Facility | – | 1.5% | ||||||
| 13:15 | EUR | ECB Rate On Main Refinancing Operations | – | 2% | ||||||
| 13:15 | CAD | Housing Starts s.a (YoY)(Nov) | – | 267.1K | ||||||
| 13:30 | USD | Continuing Jobless Claims(Dec 2) | – | 1.671M | ||||||
| 13:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims(Dec 9) | – | 230K | ||||||
| 13:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average(Dec 9) | – | 230K | ||||||
| 13:30 | USD | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index(Dec) | – | 4.5 | ||||||
| 13:30 | USD | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey(Dec) | -11.3 | -19.4 | ||||||
| 13:30 | USD | Retail Sales (MoM)(Nov) | -0.2% | 1.3% | ||||||
| 13:30 | USD | Retail Sales Control Group(Nov) | 0.3% | 0.7% | ||||||
| 13:30 | USD | Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM)(Nov) | 0.4% | 1.3% | ||||||
| 13:30 | CAD | Employment Insurance Beneficiaries Change (MoM)(Oct) | – | -5.6% | ||||||
| 13:45 | EUR | ECB Press Conference | ||||||||
| 14:15 | USD | Capacity Utilization(Nov) | 80.1% | 79.9% | ||||||
| 14:15 | USD | Industrial Production (MoM)(Nov) | -0.1% | -0.1% | ||||||
| 15:00 | USD | Business Inventories(Oct) | – | 0.4% | ||||||
| 15:30 | USD | EIA Natural Gas Storage Change(Dec 9) | – | -21B | ||||||
| 22:00 | AUD | S&P Global Composite PMI(Dec) PREL | – | 48 | ||||||
| 22:00 | AUD | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI(Dec) PREL | – | 51.3 | ||||||
| 22:00 | AUD | S&P Global Services PMI(Dec) PREL | – | 47.6 | ||||||
Thursday’s earnings reports: ADBE JBL SHAP LIVE CORZ TRIB. Wall Street analysts expect Adobe to report EPS of $3.5.
Friday, December 16
Friday is another interesting day full of economic events. In the USA the Flash PMI’s will be on focus. In the UK will be released the consumer confidence for December and retail sales which expected to drop 0.2% in November.
In Eurozone will also be on focus the S&P Global PMI’s, the consumer price index and the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices.
| 00:01 | GBP | GfK Consumer Confidence(Dec) | -46 | -44 | ||||||
| 00:30 | JPY | Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI(Dec) FLASH | 48 | 49 | ||||||
| 00:30 | JPY | Jibun Bank Services PMI(Dec) FLASH | 51.1 | 50.3 | ||||||
| 07:00 | GBP | Retail Sales (MoM)(Nov) | -0.2% | 0.6% | ||||||
| 07:00 | GBP | Retail Sales (YoY)(Nov) | 2.7% | -6.1% | ||||||
| 07:00 | GBP | Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM)(Nov) | 0.3% | 0.3% | ||||||
| 07:00 | GBP | Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY)(Nov) | 2.5% | -6.7% | ||||||
| 08:15 | EUR | S&P Global Composite PMI(Dec) | 48.7 | 48.7 | ||||||
| 08:15 | EUR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI(Dec) | 48.7 | 48.3 | ||||||
| 08:15 | EUR | S&P Global Services PMI(Dec) | 48.1 | 49.3 | ||||||
| 08:30 | EUR | S&P Global/BME Composite PMI(Dec) | 46.3 | 46.3 | ||||||
| 08:30 | EUR | S&P Global/BME Manufacturing PMI(Dec) | 46.7 | 46.2 | ||||||
| 08:30 | EUR | S&P Global/BME Services PMI(Dec) | 46.4 | 46.1 | ||||||
| 09:00 | EUR | Global Trade Balance(Oct) | – | €-1.023B | ||||||
| 09:00 | EUR | Trade Balance EU(Oct) | €-4.583B | €-6.454B | ||||||
| 09:00 | EUR | S&P Global Composite PMI(Dec) PREL | 48 | 47.8 | ||||||
| 09:00 | EUR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI(Dec) PREL | 46.8 | 47.1 | ||||||
| 09:00 | EUR | S&P Global Services PMI(Dec) PREL | 48.5 | 48.5 | ||||||
| 09:30 | GBP | S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI(Dec) PREL | – | 48.2 | ||||||
| 09:30 | GBP | S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI(Dec) PREL | 46.5 | 46.5 | ||||||
| 09:30 | GBP | S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI(Dec) PREL | 49.2 | 48.8 | ||||||
| 10:00 | EUR | Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM)(Nov) | 0.6% | 0.6% | ||||||
| 10:00 | EUR | Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY)(Nov) | 12.5% | 12.5% | ||||||
| 10:00 | EUR | Consumer Price Index (MoM)(Nov) | 0.5% | 0.5% | ||||||
| 10:00 | EUR | Consumer Price Index (YoY)(Nov) | – | 11.8% | ||||||
| 10:00 | EUR | Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)(Nov) | 0% | 0% | ||||||
| 10:00 | EUR | Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)(Nov) | 5% | 5% | ||||||
| 10:00 | EUR | Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)(Nov) | -0.1% | -0.1% | ||||||
| 10:00 | EUR | Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)(Nov) | – | 10% | ||||||
| 10:00 | EUR | Trade Balance n.s.a.(Oct) | €-48.9B | €-34.4B | ||||||
| 10:00 | EUR | Trade Balance s.a.(Oct) | €-48.6B | €-37.7B | ||||||
| 13:30 | CAD | Canadian Portfolio Investment in Foreign Securities(Oct) | – | $9.56B | ||||||
| 13:30 | CAD | Foreign Portfolio Investment in Canadian Securities(Oct) | – | $-22.27B | ||||||
| 13:30 | CAD | New Housing Price Index (MoM)(Nov) | – | -0.2% | ||||||
| 13:30 | CAD | New Housing Price Index (YoY)(Nov) | – | 5.1% | ||||||
| 13:30 | CAD | Wholesale Sales (MoM)(Oct) | – | 0.1% | ||||||
| 14:45 | USD | S&P Global Composite PMI(Dec) FLASH | – | 46.4 | ||||||
| 14:45 | USD | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI(Dec) FLASH | – | 47.7 | ||||||
| 14:45 | USD | S&P Global Services PMI(Dec) FLASH | – | 46.2 | ||||||
| 18:00 | USD | Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count | – | 625 | ||||||
Friday’s earnings reports: CAN DRI WGO
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