Key Events in the Week Ahead 12/18-12-2022 – Fed-ECB-BOE

PPI PMI Fed CPI

A critical week starts on Monday with four major central banks Fed, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank announcing their policy decisions while the U.S. CPI figure will play an important role in the Feds decision.    

Analysts are expecting Fed to raise rates by 50 basis points to 4.25%-4.5% on December 14. The central bank has already raised interest rates by 375 basis points from 0%-0.25% to 3.75% to 4%. The markets are looking for a terminal rate of 5% but strong labour data has shifted expectations slightly higher in the previous week.

Monday, December 12

The focus on Monday will be on the British GDP outcome with expectations month over month for -0.1%, the previous reading was at -0.6%. The manufacturing production year over year is expected at -6.3%, the previous reading was at -5.8%.    

                                                                                                          Consensus Previous

01:50JPYBSI Large Manufacturing Conditions Index (QoQ)(Q4) 0.11.7
01:50JPYProducer Price Index (MoM)(Nov) 0.5%0.6%
01:50JPYProducer Price Index (YoY)(Nov) 8.9%9.1%
N/AAUDANZ Job Advertisements(Oct) -0.7%-0.5%
02:30AUDANZ Job Advertisements(Nov) 
08:00JPYMachine Tool Orders (YoY)(Nov) -5.4%
09:00GBPGoods Trade Balance(Oct) £-20.894B£-15.656B
09:00GBPGross Domestic Product (MoM)(Oct) -0.1%-0.6%
09:00GBPIndex of Services (3M/3M)(Oct) -0.1%0%
09:00GBPIndustrial Production (MoM)(Oct) -0.3%0.2%
09:00GBPIndustrial Production (YoY)(Oct) -4.2%-3.1%
09:00GBPManufacturing Production (MoM)(Oct) -0.1%0%
09:00GBPManufacturing Production (YoY)(Oct) -6.3%-5.8%
09:00GBPTotal Trade Balance(Oct) £-3.135B
09:00GBPTrade Balance; non-EU(Oct) £-11.309B£-8.551B
18:30USD3-Month Bill Auction 4.27%
18:30USD6-Month Bill Auction 4.57%
20:00USD10-Year Note Auction 4.14%
20:00USD3-Year Note Auction 4.605%
21:00USDMonthly Budget Statement(Nov) $-88B
N/ANZDREINZ House Price Index (MoM)(Nov) 0.2%
22:25CADBoC’s Governor Macklem speech  
23:45NZDFood Price Index (MoM)(Nov) 0.1%0.8%

Monday’s earnings reports: ORCL STCN VALU BLBD GTH SIF. Analysts expect Oracle (ORCL) to report earnings of $1.18 in the third quarter,

Tuesday, December 13

Tuesday sees the release of the November CPI report, which is expected at 0.3% in the month-on-month rate, while in the year-on-year analysts expect CPI at 7.3%. A softer figure will enhance the speculation for rate cuts by the end of 2023. If the forecasts are correct, then would be the lowest CPI reading since the beginning of the year, while it will be the fifth consecutive month of slowing yearly growth. CPI hit a 41-year high on June 2022 with a reading of 9.1%.

In Great Britain, the ILO Unemployment rate for October is expected unchanged compared to the previous month at 3.6%.

From Eurozone, we have the CPI which is expected at 10% on a yearly basis and at -0.5% on a monthly basis. Also, analysts expect that the ZEW survey for the Eurozone will point to further deterioration.     

Consensus Previous

02:30AUDNational Australia Bank’s Business Conditions(Nov) 2022
02:30AUDNational Australia Bank’s Business Confidence(Nov) 50
08:30EURNonfarm Payrolls (QoQ)(Q3) 0.4%0.4%
09:00GBPAverage Earnings Excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr)(Oct) 5.7%5.7%
09:00GBPAverage Earnings Including Bonus (3Mo/Yr)(Oct) 5.4%6%
09:00GBPClaimant Count Change(Nov) -13.3K3.3K
09:00GBPClaimant Count Rate(Nov) 3.9%
09:00GBPILO Unemployment Rate (3M)(Oct) 3.6%3.6%
09:00EURConsumer Price Index (MoM)(Nov) -0.5%-0.5%
09:00EURConsumer Price Index (YoY)(Nov) 10%10%
09:00EURHarmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)(Nov) 0%0%
09:00EURHarmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)(Nov) 11.3%11.3%
11:00EURIndustrial Output s.a. (MoM)(Oct) -0.3%-1.8%
11:00EURIndustrial Output w.d.a (YoY)(Oct) 1.2%-0.5%
11:30GBPFinancial Stability Report  
11:30GBPFPC Meeting Minutes  
11:30GBPFPC Statement  
11:40EUR3-Month Letras Auction 1.369%
11:40EUR9-Month Letras Auction 2.363%
12:00EURZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment(Dec) -67.2-38.7
12:00EURZEW Survey – Current Situation(Dec) -63.9-64.5
12:00EURZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment(Dec) -48.1-36.7
13:00USDNFIB Business Optimism Index(Nov) 91.3
13:30EURCurrent Account n.s.a.(Oct) €7.5B€14.8B
15:30USDConsumer Price Index (MoM)(Nov) 0.3%0.4%
15:30USDConsumer Price Index (YoY)(Nov) 7.3%7.7%
15:30USDConsumer Price Index Core s.a(Nov) 299.47
15:30USDConsumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)(Nov) 0.6%0.3%
15:30USDConsumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)(Nov) 6.4%6.3%
15:30USDConsumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM)(Nov) 
15:55USDRedbook Index (YoY)(Dec 9) 5.7%

Tuesday’s earnings reports: BHP LEGN BRZE HEXO GTH ABM

Wednesday, December 14 – Fed Day

Wednesday is a big day for markets as the Fed will announce its policy rate decision and will give hints about the future path of interest rates. Markets expect that the last FOMC meeting of the year will deliver a 50 basis points hike while the focus will be on the press conference looking for hints about the terminal rate which is now expected at 5% and validation of the market expectations for rate cuts in 2023. The recent strong fundamental data in my view will not support the expectations for rate cuts in 2023.

In Britain, the November CPI will be released and the expectations are for the monthly reading at 1.2% while for the yearly reading the forecasts are at 11.5%, the previous reading was at 11.1%. 

Consensus Previous

04:30JPYIndustrial Production (MoM)(Oct) -2.6%
04:30JPYIndustrial Production (YoY)(Oct) 3.7%
07:00GBPConsumer Price Index (MoM)(Nov) 1.2%2%
07:00GBPConsumer Price Index (YoY)(Nov) 11.5%11.1%
07:00GBPCore Consumer Price Index (YoY)(Nov) 6.6%6.5%
07:00GBPRetail Price Index (MoM)(Nov) 1.5%2.5%
07:00GBPRetail Price Index (YoY)(Nov) 14.3%14.2%
07:30CHFProducer and Import Prices (MoM)(Nov) 0.4%0%
07:30CHFProducer and Import Prices (YoY)(Nov) 4.8%4.9%
08:00EURConsumer Price Index (MoM)(Nov) -0.1%-0.1%
08:00EURConsumer Price Index (YoY)(Nov) 6.8%6.8%
08:00EURHarmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)(Nov) -0.5%-0.5%
08:00EURHarmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)(Nov) 6.6%6.6%
09:30GBPDCLG House Price Index (YoY)(Nov) 12.5%9.5%
10:00EURIndustrial Production s.a. (MoM)(Oct) 0%0.9%
10:00EURIndustrial Production w.d.a. (YoY)(Oct) 3.7%4.9%
12:00USDMBA Mortgage Applications(Dec 9) -1.9%
13:30USDExport Price Index (MoM)(Nov) 0.7%-0.3%
13:30USDExport Price Index (YoY)(Nov) 6.4%6.9%
13:30USDImport Price Index (MoM)(Nov) 0.2%-0.2%
13:30USDImport Price Index (YoY)(Nov) 2.6%4.2%
13:30CADManufacturing Sales (MoM)(Oct) -0.2%0%
15:30USDEIA Crude Oil Stocks Change(Dec 9) -5.187M
19:00USDFed Interest Rate Decision 4%
19:00USDFed’s Monetary Policy Statement  
19:00USDFOMC Economic Projections  
19:30USDFOMC Press Conference  
21:45NZDGross Domestic Product (QoQ)(Q3) -1.9%1.7%
21:45NZDGross Domestic Product (YoY)(Q3) 1.9%0.4%

Wednesday’s earnings reports: LEN TCOM SID NEXT WEBR

Thursday, December 15 – ECB – BOE – SNB

Three major central banks will deliver their policy decisions on Thursday. ECB is expected to hike interest rates by 50 basis points, but in the last few days, the 75 basis points have returned to the table.

Bank of England is expected for the ninth consecutive meeting to raise rates by 50 bps to 3.5%.

Swiss National Bank will also expected to raise rates by 50 basis points. In the September meeting, SNB raised rates by 75 bps, but as the inflation dropped to 3% the central bank will not proceed with another giga hike.

US retail sales are expected to contract by -0.2% in November after a strong reading of 1.3% in October. The industrial production estimates point to a drop of 0.1% which will mark he second consecutive month of contraction.

In Australia the focus will be on the Unemployment rate which is forecasted at 3.3%, the previous reading was at 3.4%.

00:00AUDConsumer Inflation Expectations(Dec) 5.7%6%
00:30AUDEmployment Change s.a.(Nov) 46.5K32.2K
00:30AUDFull-Time Employment(Nov) 47.1K
00:30AUDPart-Time Employment(Nov) -14.9K
00:30AUDParticipation Rate(Nov) 66.6%66.5%
00:30AUDUnemployment Rate s.a.(Nov) 3.3%3.4%
02:00CNYFixed Asset Investment (YTD) (YoY)(Nov) 5.8%5.8%
02:00CNYIndustrial Production (YoY)(Nov) 4.4%5%
02:00CNYRetail Sales (YoY)(Nov) 1%-0.5%
07:00EURWholesale Price Index (MoM)(Nov) 1.1%-0.6%
07:00EURWholesale Price Index (YoY)(Nov) 14.7%17.4%
07:45EURBusiness Climate in Manufacturing(Dec) 102101
07:45EURConsumer Price Index (EU norm) (MoM)(Nov) 0.5%
07:45EURConsumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY)(Nov) 7.1%
07:45EURInflation ex-tobacco (MoM)(Nov) 1%
08:30CHFSNB Interest Rate Decision 0.5%
12:00GBPBoE Asset Purchase Facility 
12:00GBPBoE Interest Rate Decision 3.5%3%
13:15EURECB Monetary Policy Decision Statement  
13:15EURECB Rate On Deposit Facility 1.5%
13:15EURECB Rate On Main Refinancing Operations 2%
13:15CADHousing Starts s.a (YoY)(Nov) 267.1K
13:30USDContinuing Jobless Claims(Dec 2) 1.671M
13:30USDInitial Jobless Claims(Dec 9) 230K
13:30USDInitial Jobless Claims 4-week average(Dec 9) 230K
13:30USDNY Empire State Manufacturing Index(Dec) 4.5
13:30USDPhiladelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey(Dec) -11.3-19.4
13:30USDRetail Sales (MoM)(Nov) -0.2%1.3%
13:30USDRetail Sales Control Group(Nov) 0.3%0.7%
13:30USDRetail Sales ex Autos (MoM)(Nov) 0.4%1.3%
13:30CADEmployment Insurance Beneficiaries Change (MoM)(Oct) -5.6%
13:45EURECB Press Conference  
14:15USDCapacity Utilization(Nov) 80.1%79.9%
14:15USDIndustrial Production (MoM)(Nov) -0.1%-0.1%
15:00USDBusiness Inventories(Oct) 0.4%
15:30USDEIA Natural Gas Storage Change(Dec 9) -21B
22:00AUDS&P Global Composite PMI(Dec) PREL  48
22:00AUDS&P Global Manufacturing PMI(Dec) PREL  51.3
22:00AUDS&P Global Services PMI(Dec) PREL  47.6

Thursday’s earnings reports: ADBE JBL SHAP LIVE CORZ TRIB. Wall Street analysts expect Adobe to report EPS of $3.5.

Friday, December 16

Friday is another interesting day full of economic events. In the USA the Flash PMI’s will be on focus. In the UK will be released the consumer confidence for December and retail sales which expected to drop 0.2% in November.

In Eurozone will also be on focus the S&P Global PMI’s, the consumer price index and the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices.

00:01GBPGfK Consumer Confidence(Dec) -46-44
00:30JPYJibun Bank Manufacturing PMI(Dec) FLASH  4849
00:30JPYJibun Bank Services PMI(Dec) FLASH  51.150.3
07:00GBPRetail Sales (MoM)(Nov) -0.2%0.6%
07:00GBPRetail Sales (YoY)(Nov) 2.7%-6.1%
07:00GBPRetail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM)(Nov) 0.3%0.3%
07:00GBPRetail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY)(Nov) 2.5%-6.7%
08:15EURS&P Global Composite PMI(Dec) 48.748.7
08:15EURS&P Global Manufacturing PMI(Dec)48.748.3
08:15EURS&P Global Services PMI(Dec) 48.149.3
08:30EURS&P Global/BME Composite PMI(Dec)   46.346.3
08:30EURS&P Global/BME Manufacturing PMI(Dec) 46.746.2
08:30EURS&P Global/BME Services PMI(Dec)  46.446.1
09:00EURGlobal Trade Balance(Oct) €-1.023B
09:00EURTrade Balance EU(Oct) €-4.583B€-6.454B
09:00EURS&P Global Composite PMI(Dec) PREL  4847.8
09:00EURS&P Global Manufacturing PMI(Dec) PREL  46.847.1
09:00EURS&P Global Services PMI(Dec) PREL  48.548.5
09:30GBPS&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI(Dec) PREL  48.2
09:30GBPS&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI(Dec) PREL  46.546.5
09:30GBPS&P Global/CIPS Services PMI(Dec) PREL  49.248.8
10:00EURConsumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM)(Nov) 0.6%0.6%
10:00EURConsumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY)(Nov) 12.5%12.5%
10:00EURConsumer Price Index (MoM)(Nov) 0.5%0.5%
10:00EURConsumer Price Index (YoY)(Nov) 11.8%
10:00EURCore Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)(Nov) 0%0%
10:00EURCore Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)(Nov) 5%5%
10:00EURHarmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)(Nov) -0.1%-0.1%
10:00EURHarmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)(Nov) 10%
10:00EURTrade Balance n.s.a.(Oct) €-48.9B€-34.4B
10:00EURTrade Balance s.a.(Oct) €-48.6B€-37.7B
13:30CADCanadian Portfolio Investment in Foreign Securities(Oct) $9.56B 
13:30CADForeign Portfolio Investment in Canadian Securities(Oct) $-22.27B 
13:30CADNew Housing Price Index (MoM)(Nov) -0.2% 
13:30CADNew Housing Price Index (YoY)(Nov) 5.1% 
13:30CADWholesale Sales (MoM)(Oct) 0.1% 
14:45USDS&P Global Composite PMI(Dec) FLASH  46.4 
14:45USDS&P Global Manufacturing PMI(Dec) FLASH  47.7 
14:45USDS&P Global Services PMI(Dec) FLASH  46.2 
18:00USDBaker Hughes US Oil Rig Count 625 

Friday’s earnings reports: CAN DRI WGO

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