February 24, 2024
London, UK

Key Events in the Week Ahead 19/25-12-2022

Key Events week ISM Services USDJPY traders

Investors will enter the new week trying to digest the hawkish messages from Fed and ECB, both central banks raised the interest rates the previous week and left the door open for higher terminal rates.

Monday, December 19

The focus on Monday will be on the Ifo surveys for the eurozone, the Ifo business climate expected at 87.2, the previous reading was at 86.3.  

In the USA the NAHB Housing Market Index, for December is expected at 34 the previous reading was at 33.

01:30     AUD       Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook                                                  

09:00     EUR        IFO – Business Climate                                 87.2        86.3       

09:00     EUR        IFO – Current Assessment                            93.5        93.1       

09:00     EUR        IFO – Expectations                                           82           80          

10:00     EUR        Labor Cost                                                           3%          4%         

10:00     EUR        Construction Output w.d.a (YoY)               3%          1%         

11:00     EUR        German Buba Monthly Report                                                   

13:30     CAD       Raw Material Price Index                              0%          1.3%     

13:30     CAD       Industrial Product Price (MoM)                  3%          2.4%     

20:00     NZD       Westpac Consumer Survey                          97.8        87.6       

21:45     NZD       Trade Balance NZD (MoM)                           $-1,091M             $-2,129M            

21:45     NZD       Exports                                                                                                 $6.14B  

21:45     NZD       Trade Balance NZD (YoY)                               $-12.717B            $-12.88B              

21:45     NZD       Imports                                                                                                $8.27B

Monday’s earnings reports: HEI CCL VALU VERY AVYA STAB

Tuesday, December 20

Tuesday is a Bank of Japan day and the consensus is that BOJ will continue with current monetary policy. Most forex analysts expect that the central bank will proceed with some adjustments in the monetary policy next year amid an improvement in the economy and higher inflation environment in Japan and across the globe.

PBOC will also announce its loan prime rate and expectations are that China’s central bank will keep the rates unchanged.

In Canada the release of the retail sales will drive the USDCAD. Economists expect the monthly reading for the retail sales at -0.3% the previous reading was at -0.5%.

00:00     NZD       ANZ Activity Outlook                       -8.1%     -13.7% 

00:00     NZD       ANZ Business Confidence                             -50          -57.1     

00:30     AUD       RBA Meeting Minutes                                                   

01:15     CNY        PBoC Interest Rate Decision                                       3.65%   

03:00     JPY         BoJ Interest Rate Decision                                           -0.1%    

03:00     JPY         BoJ Monetary Policy Statement                                                

06:00     JPY         BoJ Press Conference                                                    

07:00     EUR        Producer Price Index (YoY)                           30%        34.5%   

07:00     EUR        Producer Price Index (MoM)                       -2.6%     -4.2%    

07:00     CHF        Trade Balance                                    3,800     4,140    

09:00     EUR        Current Account s.a                         €-11.6B €-8.06B

09:00     EUR        Current Account n.s.a                     €-13.8B €3.81B  

11:00     EUR        Current Account Balance                                               €-3.597B              

13:30     CAD       Retail Sales (MoM)                          -0.3%     -0.5%    

13:30     CAD       Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM)                        0.8%      -0.7%    

13:55     USD       Redbook Index (YoY)                                      5.9%     

14:00     NZD       GDT Price Index                                0.6%     

15:00     EUR        Consumer Confidence                   -22.5      -23.9     

21:00     NZD       ANZ – Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence                                             80.7       

23:30     AUD       Westpac Leading Index (MoM)                                  -0.05%

Tuesday’s earnings reports: BB FDX FDS GIS NKE. Analysts expect Nike to report earnings of $0.65 per share. For the FedEx the expectations are for earnings per share of $2.83.

Wednesday, December 21

In Europe investors will focus on Gfk Consumer Confidence survey with expectations at -38, the previous reading was at -40.2.

In Canada the monthly and yearly CPI will be on the center stage; the forecasts are for 6.4% in the yearly reading and at 0.0% for the month November.  

02:00     NZD       Credit Card Spending (YoY)                          7.3%      24.8%   

07:00     EUR        Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey                             -38          -40.2     

07:00     GBP       Public Sector Net Borrowing                        £8.064B                £12.728B             

09:00     EUR        Current Account (YoY)                                    €-0.811B              

13:00     CHF        SNB Quarterly Bulletin                                                  

13:30     CAD       BoC Consumer Price Index Core (YoY)                      6.4%      5.8%     

13:30     CAD       BoC Consumer Price Index Core (MoM)                  0%          0.4%     

13:30     CAD       Consumer Price Index (MoM)                     0.4%      0.7%     

13:30     CAD       Consumer Price Index (YoY)                         7.4%      6.9%     

13:30     CAD       Consumer Price Index – Core (MoM)                                        0.2%     

13:30     USD       Current Account                                               $-251.1B              

15:00     USD       Consumer Confidence                                                  

23:50     JPY         Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks                                          ¥1,154.2B            

23:50     JPY         Foreign Bond Investment                                             ¥-605.7B

Wednesday’s earnings reports: RAD TTC MU NEXT

Thursday, December 22

UK will release the Gross Domestic Product data with expectations for -0.2% in the quarterly reading and 2.4% in the yearly reading the same as the previous reading.

In Japan the CPI is expected at 3.7%.

A busy day will be in the USA, as Initial Jobless Claims, Gross Domestic Product Annualized, Chicago Fed National Activity Index and Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity will be released. Analysts expect GDP growth annualized at 2.9% for the second quarter, and the Gross Domestic Product Price Index at 4.9%.

05:00     JPY         Leading Economic Index                                99           99          

05:00     JPY         Coincident Index                                              99.9        99.9       

06:00     GBP       Total Business Investment (YoY)                                3.5%      3.5%     

06:00     GBP       Total Business Investment (QoQ)                              -0.5%     -0.5%    

06:00     GBP       Current Account                               £-33.224B            £-33.768B           

07:00     GBP       Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)                   -0.2%     -0.2%    

07:00     GBP       Gross Domestic Product (YoY)                     2.4%      2.4%     

13:30     USD       Chicago Fed National Activity Index                          -0.01      -0.05     

13:30     USD       Initial Jobless Claims                                       211        

13:30     USD       Continuing Jobless Claims                                             1.671    

13:30     USD       Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average                                      227.25  

13:30     USD       Gross Domestic Product Annualized                         2.9%      2.9%     

13:30     USD       Gross Domestic Product Price Index                         4.3%      4.3%     

13:30     USD       Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)               4.6%      4.6%     

13:30     USD       Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)             4.3%      4.3%     

16:00     USD       Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity                           -16          -10         

23:30     JPY         National CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY)                           2.7%      2.5%     

23:30     JPY         National CPI ex-Fresh Food (YoY)                               3.7%      3.6%     

23:30     JPY         National Consumer Price Index (YoY)                       3.7%      3.7%     

23:50     JPY         BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes                   

Thursday’s earnings reports: PAYX KMX AVO SNT

Friday, December 23

Friday will be another busy day for traders and investors. Eurozone Gross Domestic Product will be released with expectations for 3.8% in the yearly reading and 0.2% for the quarterly reading.

In Canada the GDP data will also released, with expectations at 0.1%.

In USA the menu is full:  Durable Goods Orders is expected at 1.1% the previous reading was at 1%. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is expected unchanged at 59.1 while Personal Income forecasted at 0.2%. Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index

00:30     AUD       Private Sector Credit (YoY)                                           9.5%     

00:30     AUD       Private Sector Credit (MoM)                                        0.6%     

07:45     EUR        Producer Prices (MoM)                 2.4%      -0.1%    

08:00     EUR        Gross Domestic Product (YoY)     3.8%      3.8% 6.8%           

08:00     EUR        Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)   0.2% 0.2% 1.5%

13:30     CAD       Gross Domestic Product (MoM)                 0.1%      0.1%     

13:30     USD       Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (YoY)                  5.3%      6%         

13:30     USD       Core Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (MoM) 0.4% 0.2%              

13:30     USD       Personal Income (MoM)                               0.2%      0.7%     

13:30     USD       Core Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (YoY)    4.6%          5%         

13:30     USD      Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (MoM)  0.3%   0.3%     

13:30     USD       Personal Spending                           0.1%      0.8%     

13:30     USD       Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft    0% 0.6% 0.7%      

13:30     USD       Durable Goods Orders   0% 1.1% 1%       

13:30     USD       Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation                               0%          0.5%     

13:30     USD       Durable Goods Orders ex Defense 0.9% 0.8%      

15:00     USD       UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation                                        3%         

15:00     USD       Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index                      59.1        59.1

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