Investors will enter the new week trying to digest the hawkish messages from Fed and ECB, both central banks raised the interest rates the previous week and left the door open for higher terminal rates.
Monday, December 19
The focus on Monday will be on the Ifo surveys for the eurozone, the Ifo business climate expected at 87.2, the previous reading was at 86.3.
In the USA the NAHB Housing Market Index, for December is expected at 34 the previous reading was at 33.
01:30 AUD Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
09:00 EUR IFO – Business Climate 87.2 86.3
09:00 EUR IFO – Current Assessment 93.5 93.1
09:00 EUR IFO – Expectations 82 80
10:00 EUR Labor Cost 3% 4%
10:00 EUR Construction Output w.d.a (YoY) 3% 1%
11:00 EUR German Buba Monthly Report
13:30 CAD Raw Material Price Index 0% 1.3%
13:30 CAD Industrial Product Price (MoM) 3% 2.4%
20:00 NZD Westpac Consumer Survey 97.8 87.6
21:45 NZD Trade Balance NZD (MoM) $-1,091M $-2,129M
21:45 NZD Exports $6.14B
21:45 NZD Trade Balance NZD (YoY) $-12.717B $-12.88B
21:45 NZD Imports $8.27B
Monday’s earnings reports: HEI CCL VALU VERY AVYA STAB
Tuesday, December 20
Tuesday is a Bank of Japan day and the consensus is that BOJ will continue with current monetary policy. Most forex analysts expect that the central bank will proceed with some adjustments in the monetary policy next year amid an improvement in the economy and higher inflation environment in Japan and across the globe.
PBOC will also announce its loan prime rate and expectations are that China’s central bank will keep the rates unchanged.
In Canada the release of the retail sales will drive the USDCAD. Economists expect the monthly reading for the retail sales at -0.3% the previous reading was at -0.5%.
00:00 NZD ANZ Activity Outlook -8.1% -13.7%
00:00 NZD ANZ Business Confidence -50 -57.1
00:30 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
01:15 CNY PBoC Interest Rate Decision 3.65%
03:00 JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision -0.1%
03:00 JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
06:00 JPY BoJ Press Conference
07:00 EUR Producer Price Index (YoY) 30% 34.5%
07:00 EUR Producer Price Index (MoM) -2.6% -4.2%
07:00 CHF Trade Balance 3,800 4,140
09:00 EUR Current Account s.a €-11.6B €-8.06B
09:00 EUR Current Account n.s.a €-13.8B €3.81B
11:00 EUR Current Account Balance €-3.597B
13:30 CAD Retail Sales (MoM) -0.3% -0.5%
13:30 CAD Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) 0.8% -0.7%
13:55 USD Redbook Index (YoY) 5.9%
14:00 NZD GDT Price Index 0.6%
15:00 EUR Consumer Confidence -22.5 -23.9
21:00 NZD ANZ – Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence 80.7
23:30 AUD Westpac Leading Index (MoM) -0.05%
Tuesday’s earnings reports: BB FDX FDS GIS NKE. Analysts expect Nike to report earnings of $0.65 per share. For the FedEx the expectations are for earnings per share of $2.83.
Wednesday, December 21
In Europe investors will focus on Gfk Consumer Confidence survey with expectations at -38, the previous reading was at -40.2.
In Canada the monthly and yearly CPI will be on the center stage; the forecasts are for 6.4% in the yearly reading and at 0.0% for the month November.
02:00 NZD Credit Card Spending (YoY) 7.3% 24.8%
07:00 EUR Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey -38 -40.2
07:00 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing £8.064B £12.728B
09:00 EUR Current Account (YoY) €-0.811B
13:00 CHF SNB Quarterly Bulletin
13:30 CAD BoC Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) 6.4% 5.8%
13:30 CAD BoC Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) 0% 0.4%
13:30 CAD Consumer Price Index (MoM) 0.4% 0.7%
13:30 CAD Consumer Price Index (YoY) 7.4% 6.9%
13:30 CAD Consumer Price Index – Core (MoM) 0.2%
13:30 USD Current Account $-251.1B
15:00 USD Consumer Confidence
23:50 JPY Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks ¥1,154.2B
23:50 JPY Foreign Bond Investment ¥-605.7B
Wednesday’s earnings reports: RAD TTC MU NEXT
Thursday, December 22
UK will release the Gross Domestic Product data with expectations for -0.2% in the quarterly reading and 2.4% in the yearly reading the same as the previous reading.
In Japan the CPI is expected at 3.7%.
A busy day will be in the USA, as Initial Jobless Claims, Gross Domestic Product Annualized, Chicago Fed National Activity Index and Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity will be released. Analysts expect GDP growth annualized at 2.9% for the second quarter, and the Gross Domestic Product Price Index at 4.9%.
05:00 JPY Leading Economic Index 99 99
05:00 JPY Coincident Index 99.9 99.9
06:00 GBP Total Business Investment (YoY) 3.5% 3.5%
06:00 GBP Total Business Investment (QoQ) -0.5% -0.5%
06:00 GBP Current Account £-33.224B £-33.768B
07:00 GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) -0.2% -0.2%
07:00 GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY) 2.4% 2.4%
13:30 USD Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.01 -0.05
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 211
13:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims 1.671
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average 227.25
13:30 USD Gross Domestic Product Annualized 2.9% 2.9%
13:30 USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index 4.3% 4.3%
13:30 USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ) 4.6% 4.6%
13:30 USD Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ) 4.3% 4.3%
16:00 USD Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity -16 -10
23:30 JPY National CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) 2.7% 2.5%
23:30 JPY National CPI ex-Fresh Food (YoY) 3.7% 3.6%
23:30 JPY National Consumer Price Index (YoY) 3.7% 3.7%
23:50 JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Thursday’s earnings reports: PAYX KMX AVO SNT
Friday, December 23
Friday will be another busy day for traders and investors. Eurozone Gross Domestic Product will be released with expectations for 3.8% in the yearly reading and 0.2% for the quarterly reading.
In Canada the GDP data will also released, with expectations at 0.1%.
In USA the menu is full: Durable Goods Orders is expected at 1.1% the previous reading was at 1%. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is expected unchanged at 59.1 while Personal Income forecasted at 0.2%. Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index
00:30 AUD Private Sector Credit (YoY) 9.5%
00:30 AUD Private Sector Credit (MoM) 0.6%
07:45 EUR Producer Prices (MoM) 2.4% -0.1%
08:00 EUR Gross Domestic Product (YoY) 3.8% 3.8% 6.8%
08:00 EUR Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) 0.2% 0.2% 1.5%
13:30 CAD Gross Domestic Product (MoM) 0.1% 0.1%
13:30 USD Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (YoY) 5.3% 6%
13:30 USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (MoM) 0.4% 0.2%
13:30 USD Personal Income (MoM) 0.2% 0.7%
13:30 USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (YoY) 4.6% 5%
13:30 USD Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (MoM) 0.3% 0.3%
13:30 USD Personal Spending 0.1% 0.8%
13:30 USD Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft 0% 0.6% 0.7%
13:30 USD Durable Goods Orders 0% 1.1% 1%
13:30 USD Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation 0% 0.5%
13:30 USD Durable Goods Orders ex Defense 0.9% 0.8%
15:00 USD UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation 3%
15:00 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index 59.1 59.1
Nikolas has been involved in the finance industry for over fifteen years spanning across Europe and USA with a depth of knowledge and experience within many aspects of the financial markets. Nikolas gained several years experience with some of the Europe’s leading Brokers, as equity analyst, and trader managing accounts for both Private and Corporate Investors. He enjoys both the fundamental and technical aspects of trading focusing on stock markets and all FX majors. Currently, Nikolas provides analysis and comments to online financial publications. Educational background in Economics (BSc), and Finance (MSc).