We are entering one of the most critical weeks of the year. Fed, ECB and Bank of England will announce their interest rate decisions.
Monday, January 30
Previous Consensus Forecast
11:00 AM DE GDP Growth Rate QoQ Flash Q4 0.4% 0% 0.0%
11:00 AM DE GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash Q4 1.3% 1.3% 1.2%
12:00 PM EA Economic Sentiment JAN 95.8 97 96.4
12:00 PM EA Industrial Sentiment JAN -1.5 -0.6 -1.2
12:00 PM EA Selling Price Expectations JAN 38.4 36
12:00 PM EA Services Sentiment JAN 6.3 7.9 5.9
12:00 PM EA Consumer Confidence Final JAN -22 -20.9 -20.9
12:00 PM EA Consumer Inflation Expectations JAN 23.7 23
12:00 PM IT PPI MoM DEC 2.6% 0.9%
12:00 PM IT PPI YoY DEC 29.4% 29%
02:00 PM ES Business Confidence JAN -5.1 -4
05:30 PM US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index JAN -18.8 -11
Tuesday, January 31
01:30 AM JP Unemployment Rate DEC 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%
01:30 AM JP Jobs/applications ratio DEC 1.35 1.36 1.36
01:50 AM JP Industrial Production MoM Prel DEC 0.2% -1.2% -1.3%
01:50 AM JP Retail Sales YoY DEC 2.6% 3% 2.4%
01:50 AM JP Industrial Production YoY Prel DEC -0.9% -2.0%
01:50 AM JP Retail Sales MoM DEC -1.1% 0.6%
02:30 AM AU Housing Credit MoM DEC 0.4% 0.4%
02:30 AM AU Retail Sales MoM Prel DEC 1.4% -1% 0.4%
02:30 AM AU Private Sector Credit YoY DEC 8.9% 8.6%
02:30 AM AU Private Sector Credit MoM DEC 0.5% 0.5%
03:30 AM CN NBS Manufacturing PMI JAN 47.0 49.7 49.5
03:30 AM CN NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI JAN 41.6 47.3
03:30 AM CN Industrial Profits (YTD) YoY DEC -3.6% -5.2%
03:30 AM CN NBS General PMI JAN 42.6 46
03:30 AM IF IMF/World Economic Outlook
07:00 AM JP Consumer Confidence JAN 30.3 30
07:00 AM JP Housing Starts YoY DEC -1.4% 0.5% -0.3%
07:00 AM JP Construction Orders YoY DEC -9.7% 4%
08:30 AM FR GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel Q4 1% 0.5% 0.4%
08:30 AM FR GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel Q4 0.2% 0% 0.0%
08:30 AM FR Household Consumption MoM DEC 0.5% 0% 0.1%
09:00 AM DE Retail Sales MoM DEC 1.1% 0.4% 0.4%
09:00 AM DE Retail Sales YoY DEC -5.9% -3%
09:00 AM DE Import Prices MoM DEC -4.5% -2.2% -2.2%
09:00 AM DE Import Prices YoY DEC 14.5% 11.6% 11.9%
09:45 AM FR Inflation Rate YoY Prel JAN 5.9% 6.1%
09:45 AM FR Inflation Rate MoM Prel JAN -0.1% 0.5%
09:45 AM FR Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM Prel JAN -0.1% 0.3% 0.3%
09:45 AM FR Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY Prel JAN 6.7% 6.9% 6.9%
10:55 AM DE Unemployed Persons JAN 2.52M 2.50M
10:55 AM DE Unemployment Change JAN -13K 5K 2K
10:55 AM DE Unemployment Rate JAN 5.5% 5.5% 5.5%
11:30 AM GB BoE Consumer Credit DEC £1.507B £1.2B £ 1.31B
11:30 AM GB Mortgage Approvals DEC 46.075K 43K 45K
11:30 AM GB Mortgage Lending DEC £4.358B £4.0B
12:00 PM EA GDP Growth Rate QoQ Flash Q4 0.3% 0% 0.0%
12:00 PM EA GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash Q4 2.3% 1.8% 1.6%
12:00 PM IT GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv Q4 0.5% -0.1% -0.2%
12:00 PM IT GDP Growth Rate YoY Adv Q4 2.6% 1.4%
03:00 PM DE Inflation Rate YoY Prel JAN 8.6% 9.2% 9%
03:00 PM DE Inflation Rate MoM Prel JAN -0.8% 1% 0.9%
03:00 PM DE Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM Prel JAN -1.2% 1.3% 1.1%
03:00 PM DE Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY Prel JAN 9.6% 10% 10%
03:30 PM CA GDP MoM NOV 0.1% 0.1% 0%
03:30 PM CA GDP MoM Prel DEC -0.1%
03:30 PM US Employment Cost Index QoQ Q4 1.2% 1.1% 1%
03:30 PM US Employment Cost – Wages QoQ Q4 1.3% 1%
03:30 PM US Employment Cost – Benefits QoQ Q4 1% 0.8%
03:55 PM US Redbook YoY JAN/28 4.6%
04:00 PM US S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY NOV 8.6% 6.9% 6.5%
04:00 PM US S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM NOV -0.8% -1%
04:00 PM US House Price Index MoM NOV 0% -0.4%
04:00 PM US House Price Index NOV 392.7 391.1
04:00 PM US House Price Index YoY NOV 9.8% 8.0%
04:45 PM US Chicago PMI JAN 44.9 44.9 43
05:00 PM US CB Consumer Confidence JAN 108.3 109 109
05:30 PM US Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index JAN -0.6 0
05:30 PM US Dallas Fed Services Index JAN -19.8 -12
11:30 PM AU Ai Group Manufacturing Index JAN 44.7 46
11:30 PM US API Crude Oil Stock Change JAN/27 3.378M
Tuesday’s earnings reports: PSX EA AMD AMGN BXP PBI GLW KEX IP CAT MCD GM XOM PFE SNAP MDLZ JNPR UPS MAN MRCY PNR SPOT
Wednesday, February 1
02:30 AM JP Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final JAN 48.9 48.9
03:45 AM CN Caixin Manufacturing PMI JAN 49 49.5 50
07:30 AM AU Commodity Prices YoY JAN 15.6% 12.7%
10:15 AM ES S&P Global Manufacturing PMI JAN 46.4 48 47.8
10:45 AM IT S&P Global Manufacturing PMI JAN 48.5 49.6 49.2
10:50 AM FR S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final JAN 49.2 50.8 50.8
10:55 AM DE S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final JAN 47.1 47 47
11:00 AM EA S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final JAN 47.8 48.8 48.8
11:00 AM ZA ABSA Manufacturing PMI JAN 53.1 55
11:30 AM GB S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI Final JAN 45.3 46.7 46.7
12:00 PM EA Inflation Rate YoY Flash JAN 9.2% 9% 8.7%
12:00 PM EA Unemployment Rate DEC 6.5% 6.5% 6.5%
12:00 PM EA Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash JAN 5.2% 5.1% 5.5%
12:00 PM EA Inflation Rate MoM Flash JAN -0.4% -0.2%
12:00 PM EA CPI Flash JAN 120.52 120.3
12:00 PM IT Inflation Rate YoY Prel JAN 11.6% 10.1% 10.4%
12:00 PM IT Inflation Rate MoM Prel JAN 0.3% 0.1% 0.5%
12:00 PM IT Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY Prel JAN 12.3% 11% 11%
12:00 PM IT Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM Prel JAN 0.2% -1.5% -1.1%
12:00 PM IT CPI Prel JAN 119 119.6
02:00 PM US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate JAN/27 6.2%
02:00 PM US MBA Mortgage Applications JAN/27 7%
02:00 PM US MBA Mortgage Refinance Index JAN/27 502.3
02:00 PM US MBA Mortgage Market Index JAN/27 255.3
02:00 PM US MBA Purchase Index JAN/27 205.4
03:15 PM US ADP Employment Change JAN 235K 170K 131K
04:30 PM CA S&P Global Manufacturing PMI JAN 49.2 49
04:45 PM US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final JAN 46.2 46.8
05:00 PM US JOLTs Job Openings DEC 10.458M 10.23M 9.5M
05:00 PM US ISM Manufacturing PMI JAN 48.4 48 48
05:00 PM US ISM Manufacturing Employment JAN 51.4 49.5 51
05:00 PM US Construction Spending MoM DEC 0.2% 0% 0.1%
05:00 PM US ISM Manufacturing New Orders JAN 45.2 45
05:00 PM US ISM Manufacturing Prices JAN 39.4 39.5 39
05:00 PM US JOLTs Job Quits DEC 4.173M 4.19M
05:30 PM MX S&P Global Manufacturing PMI JAN 51.3 50
05:30 PM US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change JAN/27 0.533M -1M
05:30 PM US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change JAN/27 1.763M 1M
05:30 PM US EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change JAN/27 4.267M
05:30 PM US EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change JAN/27 -0.009M
05:30 PM US EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change JAN/27 0.128M
05:30 PM US EIA Distillate Stocks Change JAN/27 -0.507M -1.8M
05:30 PM US EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change JAN/27 -0.234M
05:30 PM US EIA Gasoline Production Change JAN/27 -0.034M
05:30 PM US EIA Crude Oil Imports Change JAN/27 -1.791M
06:00 PM RU Industrial Production YoY DEC -1.8% -4.2% -3.9%
06:30 PM US 17-Week Bill Auction 4.620%
08:00 PM BR Balance of Trade JAN $4.8B $2.3B
09:00 PM SA Interest Rate Decision 5% 5.25%
09:00 PM US Fed Interest Rate Decision 4.5% 4.625% 4.75%
11:30 PM BR Interest Rate Decision 13.75% 13.75% 13.75%
OP OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting
Wednesday’s earnings reports: AFL ALGN MO BXP BSX DT HUM META PTON
Thursday, February 2 -ECB Decision Day
09:00 AM DE Balance of Trade DEC €11.1B €5.1B
09:00 AM DE Imports MoM s.a DEC -3.3% -0.8%
09:00 AM DE Exports MoM s.a DEC -0.3% -3.3%
09:00 AM DE Balance of Trade s.a DEC €10.8B €9.2B
02:00 PM GB BoE Interest Rate Decision 3.5% 4% 4%
02:00 PM GB MPC Meeting Minutes
02:00 PM GB BoE MPC Vote Cut 0/9 0/9
02:00 PM GB BoE MPC Vote Unchanged 2/9 2/9
02:00 PM GB BoE MPC Vote Hike 7/9 7/9
02:00 PM GB BoE Monetary Policy Report
02:30 PM US Challenger Job Cuts JAN 43.651K 54K
03:15 PM EA Deposit Facility Rate 2% 2.5% 2.5%
03:15 PM EA ECB Interest Rate Decision 2.5% 3% 3.0%
03:15 PM EA Marginal Lending Rate 2.75% 3.25%
03:30 PM CA Building Permits MoM DEC 14.1% -5% -1.8%
03:30 PM US Initial Jobless Claims JAN/28 186K 200K 187.0K
03:30 PM US Unit Labour Costs QoQ Prel Q4 2.4% 1.5% 1.7%
03:30 PM US Nonfarm Productivity QoQ Prel Q4 0.8% 2.4% 2.2%
03:30 PM US Jobless Claims 4-week Average JAN/28 197.5K 199.0K
03:30 PM US Continuing Jobless Claims JAN/21 1675K 1677K 1680.0K
03:45 PM EA ECB Press Conference
05:00 PM US Factory Orders MoM DEC -1.8% 2.3% 1.2%
05:00 PM US Factory Orders ex Transportation DEC -0.8% -0.4%
05:15 PM EA ECB President Lagarde Speech
05:30 PM US EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change JAN/27 -91Bcf
08:30 PM EA ECB President Lagarde Speech
Thursday’s earnings reports: FLWS LLY GOOGL AMZN AAPL BYD BILL BSLL BR BMY HSY X DECK F SBUX PCTY CLX MRK HOG GILD GPRO SKX TW
Friday, February 3
12:00 AM AU Judo Bank Services PMI Final JAN 47.3 48.3
12:00 AM AU Judo Bank Composite PMI Final JAN 47.5 48.2
02:30 AM AU Investment Lending for Homes DEC -3.6% -2.4%
02:30 AM JP Jibun Bank Services PMI Final JAN 51.1 52.4
02:30 AM JP Jibun Bank Composite PMI Final JAN 49.7 50.8
03:45 AM CN Caixin Services PMI JAN 48 52
03:45 AM CN Caixin Composite PMI JAN 48.3 52.8
09:45 AM FR Industrial Production MoM DEC 2% 0.2% 0.6%
10:15 AM ES S&P Global Services PMI JAN 51.6 52.5 51.9
10:15 AM ES S&P Global Composite PMI JAN 49.9 50.5
10:45 AM IT S&P Global Services PMI JAN 49.9 51 50.3
10:45 AM IT S&P Global Composite PMI JAN 49.6 50
10:50 AM FR S&P Global Services PMI Final JAN 49.5 49.2 49.2
10:50 AM FR S&P Global Composite PMI Final JAN 49.1 49 49
10:55 AM DE S&P Global Services PMI Final JAN 49.2 50.4 50.4
10:55 AM DE S&P Global Composite PMI Final JAN 49 49.7 49.7
11:00 AM EA S&P Global Services PMI Final JAN 49.8 50.7 50.7
11:00 AM EA S&P Global Composite PMI Final JAN 49.3 50.2 50.2
11:00 AM EA ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters
11:30 AM GB S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI Final JAN 49.9 48 48
11:30 AM GB S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI Final JAN 49 47.8 47.8
12:00 PM EA PPI MoM DEC -0.9% -0.4% -1.2%
12:00 PM EA PPI YoY DEC 27.1% 22.5% 24.8%
02:15 PM GB BoE Pill Speech
03:00 PM EA ECB Elderson Speech
03:30 PM US Unemployment Rate JAN 3.5% 3.6% 3.6%
03:30 PM US Non Farm Payrolls JAN 223K 185K 190K
03:30 PM US Participation Rate JAN 62.3% 62.3%
03:30 PM US Average Hourly Earnings MoM JAN 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
03:30 PM US Average Hourly Earnings YoY JAN 4.6% 4.3% 4.4%
03:30 PM US Manufacturing Payrolls JAN 8K 5K 5K
03:30 PM US Nonfarm Payrolls Private JAN 220K 180K 190K
03:30 PM US Government Payrolls JAN 3K 0K
03:30 PM US Average Weekly Hours JAN 34.3 34.3 34.4
04:45 PM US S&P Global Services PMI Final JAN 44.7 46.6 46.6
04:45 PM US S&P Global Composite PMI Final JAN 45 46.6 46.6
05:00 PM US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI JAN 49.6 50.3 50.6
05:00 PM US ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment JAN 49.8 50
05:00 PM US ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders JAN 45.2 47
05:00 PM US ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity JAN 54.7 52
05:00 PM US ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices JAN 67.6 66
08:00 PM US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count FEB/03 771
08:00 PM US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count FEB/03 609
Friday’s earnings reports: TWST ZBH CI CBOE PIPR AON
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