February 24, 2024
London, UK

Key Events in the Week Ahead 30-1/5-2/2023

Investors Key Events in the week ECB CPI

We are entering one of the most critical weeks of the year. Fed, ECB and Bank of England will announce their interest rate decisions.

Monday, January 30

                 Previous  Consensus  Forecast

11:00 AM DE GDP Growth Rate QoQ Flash Q4                      0.4%    0%       0.0%

11:00 AM DE GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash Q4                       1.3%    1.3%    1.2%

12:00 PM EA Economic Sentiment JAN                                  95.8     97        96.4

12:00 PM EA Industrial Sentiment JAN                                   -1.5      -0.6      -1.2

12:00 PM EA Selling Price Expectations JAN                          38.4                 36

12:00 PM EA Services Sentiment JAN                                     6.3       7.9       5.9

12:00 PM EA Consumer Confidence Final JAN                       -22       -20.9    -20.9

12:00 PM EA Consumer Inflation Expectations JAN               23.7                 23

12:00 PM IT PPI MoM DEC                                                     2.6%                0.9%

12:00 PM IT PPI YoY DEC                                29.4%              29%

02:00 PM ES Business Confidence JAN                       -5.1                  -4

05:30 PM US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index JAN                -18.8                -11

Tuesday, January 31

01:30 AM JP Unemployment Rate DEC                      2.5%    2.5%    2.5%

01:30 AM JP Jobs/applications ratio DEC                   1.35     1.36     1.36

01:50 AM JP Industrial Production MoM Prel DEC                0.2%    -1.2%   -1.3%

01:50 AM JP Retail Sales YoY DEC                        2.6%    3%       2.4%

01:50 AM JP Industrial Production YoY Prel DEC                   -0.9%               -2.0%

01:50 AM JP Retail Sales MoM DEC                 -1.1%               0.6%

02:30 AM AU Housing Credit MoM DEC                    0.4%                0.4%

02:30 AM AU Retail Sales MoM Prel DEC                  1.4%    -1%      0.4%

02:30 AM AU Private Sector Credit YoY DEC             8.9%                8.6%

02:30 AM AU Private Sector Credit MoM DEC                      0.5%                0.5%

03:30 AM CN NBS Manufacturing PMI JAN               47.0     49.7     49.5

03:30 AM CN NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI JAN                    41.6                 47.3

03:30 AM CN Industrial Profits (YTD) YoY DEC                      -3.6%               -5.2%

03:30 AM CN NBS General PMI JAN                  42.6                 46

03:30 AM IF IMF/World Economic Outlook

07:00 AM JP Consumer Confidence JAN                    30.3                 30

07:00 AM JP Housing Starts YoY DEC             -1.4%   0.5%    -0.3%

07:00 AM JP Construction Orders YoY DEC                -9.7%               4%

08:30 AM FR GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel Q4              1%       0.5%    0.4%

08:30 AM FR GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel Q4                        0.2%    0%       0.0%

08:30 AM FR Household Consumption MoM DEC                 0.5%    0%       0.1%

09:00 AM DE Retail Sales MoM DEC             1.1%    0.4%    0.4%

09:00 AM DE Retail Sales YoY DEC                -5.9%               -3%

09:00 AM DE Import Prices MoM DEC                      -4.5%   -2.2%   -2.2%

09:00 AM DE Import Prices YoY DEC             14.5%  11.6%  11.9%

09:45 AM FR Inflation Rate YoY Prel JAN                   5.9%                6.1%

09:45 AM FR Inflation Rate MoM Prel JAN                -0.1%               0.5%

09:45 AM FR Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM Prel JAN       -0.1%   0.3%    0.3%

09:45 AM FR Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY Prel JAN          6.7%    6.9%    6.9%

10:55 AM DE Unemployed Persons JAN                     2.52M              2.50M

10:55 AM DE Unemployment Change JAN                 -13K     5K        2K

10:55 AM DE Unemployment Rate JAN                     5.5%    5.5%    5.5%

11:30 AM GB BoE Consumer Credit DEC                   £1.507B           £1.2B   £ 1.31B

11:30 AM GB Mortgage Approvals DEC                        46.075K           43K      45K

11:30 AM GB Mortgage Lending DEC                        £4.358B                       £4.0B

12:00 PM EA GDP Growth Rate QoQ Flash Q4                      0.3%    0%       0.0%

12:00 PM EA GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash Q4                        2.3%    1.8%    1.6%

12:00 PM IT GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv Q4              0.5%    -0.1%   -0.2%

12:00 PM IT GDP Growth Rate YoY Adv Q4               2.6%                1.4%

03:00 PM DE Inflation Rate YoY Prel JAN                   8.6%    9.2%    9%

03:00 PM DE Inflation Rate MoM Prel JAN                -0.8%   1%       0.9%

03:00 PM DE Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM Prel JAN       -1.2%   1.3%    1.1%

03:00 PM DE Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY Prel JAN          9.6%    10%     10%

03:30 PM CA GDP MoM NOV             0.1%    0.1%    0%

03:30 PM CA GDP MoM Prel DEC                                          -0.1%

03:30 PM US Employment Cost Index QoQ Q4                      1.2%    1.1%    1%

03:30 PM US Employment Cost – Wages QoQ Q4                 1.3%                1%

03:30 PM US Employment Cost – Benefits QoQ Q4               1%                   0.8%

 03:55 PM US Redbook YoY JAN/28                4.6%

04:00 PM US S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY NOV                        8.6%    6.9%    6.5%

04:00 PM US S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM NOV                     -0.8%               -1%

04:00 PM US House Price Index MoM NOV                     0%                   -0.4%

04:00 PM US House Price Index NOV             392.7               391.1

04:00 PM US House Price Index YoY NOV                  9.8%                8.0%

04:45 PM US Chicago PMI JAN                       44.9     44.9     43

05:00 PM US CB Consumer Confidence JAN              108.3   109      109

05:30 PM US Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index JAN                      -0.6                  0

05:30 PM US Dallas Fed Services Index JAN                  -19.8                -12

11:30 PM AU Ai Group Manufacturing Index JAN                  44.7                 46

11:30 PM US API Crude Oil Stock Change JAN/27                 3.378M

Tuesday’s earnings reports: PSX EA AMD AMGN BXP PBI GLW KEX IP CAT MCD GM XOM PFE SNAP MDLZ JNPR UPS MAN MRCY PNR SPOT

Wednesday, February 1

02:30 AM JP Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final JAN         48.9                 48.9

03:45 AM CN Caixin Manufacturing PMI JAN                        49        49.5     50

07:30 AM AU Commodity Prices YoY JAN                  15.6%              12.7%

10:15 AM ES S&P Global Manufacturing PMI JAN                 46.4     48        47.8

10:45 AM IT S&P Global Manufacturing PMI JAN                  48.5     49.6     49.2

10:50 AM FR S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final JAN        49.2     50.8     50.8

10:55 AM DE S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final JAN                   47.1     47        47

11:00 AM EA S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final JAN 47.8     48.8     48.8

11:00 AM ZA ABSA Manufacturing PMI JAN              53.1                 55

11:30 AM GB S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI Final JAN 45.3   46.7     46.7

12:00 PM EA Inflation Rate YoY Flash JAN                 9.2%    9%       8.7%

12:00 PM EA Unemployment Rate DEC                     6.5%    6.5%    6.5%

12:00 PM EA Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash JAN                    5.2%    5.1%    5.5%

12:00 PM EA Inflation Rate MoM Flash JAN              -0.4%               -0.2%

12:00 PM EA CPI Flash JAN                 120.52             120.3

12:00 PM IT Inflation Rate YoY Prel JAN                    11.6%  10.1%  10.4%

12:00 PM IT Inflation Rate MoM Prel JAN                 0.3%    0.1%    0.5%

12:00 PM IT Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY Prel JAN           12.3%  11%     11%

12:00 PM IT Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM Prel JAN                    0.2%    -1.5%   -1.1%

12:00 PM IT CPI Prel JAN                        119                  119.6

02:00 PM US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate JAN/27              6.2%

02:00 PM US MBA Mortgage Applications JAN/27                7%

02:00 PM US MBA Mortgage Refinance Index JAN/27                      502.3

02:00 PM US MBA Mortgage Market Index JAN/27              255.3

02:00 PM US MBA Purchase Index JAN/27                205.4

03:15 PM US ADP Employment Change JAN              235K    170K    131K

04:30 PM CA S&P Global Manufacturing PMI JAN                49.2                 49

04:45 PM US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final JAN        46.2                 46.8

05:00 PM US JOLTs Job Openings DEC           10.458M          10.23M            9.5M

05:00 PM US ISM Manufacturing PMI JAN                       48.4     48        48

05:00 PM US ISM Manufacturing Employment JAN              51.4     49.5     51

05:00 PM US Construction Spending MoM DEC                    0.2%    0%       0.1%

05:00 PM US ISM Manufacturing New Orders JAN               45.2                 45

05:00 PM US ISM Manufacturing Prices JAN             39.4     39.5     39

05:00 PM US JOLTs Job Quits DEC                  4.173M                        4.19M

05:30 PM MX S&P Global Manufacturing PMI JAN               51.3                 50

05:30 PM US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change JAN/27                0.533M            -1M

05:30 PM US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change JAN/27                 1.763M            1M

05:30 PM US EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change JAN/27              4.267M

05:30 PM US EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change JAN/27              -0.009M

05:30 PM US EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change JAN/27                     0.128M

05:30 PM US EIA Distillate Stocks Change JAN/27                 -0.507M          -1.8M

05:30 PM US EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change JAN/27                        -0.234M

05:30 PM US EIA Gasoline Production Change JAN/27                      -0.034M

05:30 PM US EIA Crude Oil Imports Change JAN/27             -1.791M

06:00 PM RU Industrial Production YoY DEC             -1.8%   -4.2%   -3.9%

06:30 PM US 17-Week Bill Auction                4.620%

08:00 PM BR Balance of Trade JAN               $4.8B               $2.3B

09:00 PM SA Interest Rate Decision               5%                   5.25%

09:00 PM US Fed Interest Rate Decision                    4.5%    4.625%            4.75%

11:30 PM BR Interest Rate Decision              13.75%            13.75%            13.75%

OP OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting

Wednesday’s earnings reports: AFL ALGN MO BXP BSX DT HUM META PTON

Thursday, February 2 -ECB Decision Day

09:00 AM DE Balance of Trade DEC              €11.1B             €5.1B

09:00 AM DE Imports MoM s.a DEC              -3.3%   -0.8%

09:00 AM DE Exports MoM s.a DEC               -0.3%   -3.3%

09:00 AM DE Balance of Trade s.a DEC                     €10.8B €9.2B

02:00 PM GB BoE Interest Rate Decision                   3.5%    4%       4%

02:00 PM GB MPC Meeting Minutes

02:00 PM GB BoE MPC Vote Cut                    0/9       0/9

02:00 PM GB BoE MPC Vote Unchanged                   2/9       2/9

02:00 PM GB BoE MPC Vote Hike                  7/9       7/9

02:00 PM GB BoE Monetary Policy Report

02:30 PM US Challenger Job Cuts JAN                       43.651K                       54K

03:15 PM EA Deposit Facility Rate                 2%       2.5%    2.5%

03:15 PM EA ECB Interest Rate Decision                   2.5%    3%       3.0%

03:15 PM EA Marginal Lending Rate             2.75%              3.25%

03:30 PM CA Building Permits MoM DEC                  14.1%  -5%      -1.8%

03:30 PM US Initial Jobless Claims JAN/28                186K    200K    187.0K

03:30 PM US Unit Labour Costs QoQ Prel Q4                        2.4%    1.5%    1.7%

03:30 PM US Nonfarm Productivity QoQ Prel Q4                  0.8%    2.4%    2.2%

03:30 PM US Jobless Claims 4-week Average JAN/28           197.5K             199.0K

03:30 PM US Continuing Jobless Claims JAN/21                    1675K  1677K  1680.0K

03:45 PM EA ECB Press Conference

05:00 PM US Factory Orders MoM DEC                    -1.8%   2.3%    1.2%

05:00 PM US Factory Orders ex Transportation DEC             -0.8%               -0.4%

05:15 PM EA ECB President Lagarde Speech

05:30 PM US EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change JAN/27                        -91Bcf

08:30 PM EA ECB President Lagarde Speech

Thursday’s earnings reports: FLWS LLY GOOGL AMZN AAPL BYD BILL BSLL BR BMY HSY X DECK F SBUX PCTY CLX MRK HOG GILD GPRO SKX TW

Friday, February 3

12:00 AM AU Judo Bank Services PMI Final JAN                    47.3                 48.3

12:00 AM AU Judo Bank Composite PMI Final JAN                47.5                 48.2

02:30 AM AU Investment Lending for Homes DEC                -3.6%               -2.4%

02:30 AM JP Jibun Bank Services PMI Final JAN              51.1                 52.4

02:30 AM JP Jibun Bank Composite PMI Final JAN                49.7                 50.8

03:45 AM CN Caixin Services PMI JAN                       48                    52

03:45 AM CN Caixin Composite PMI JAN                   48.3                 52.8

09:45 AM FR Industrial Production MoM DEC                       2%       0.2%    0.6%

10:15 AM ES S&P Global Services PMI JAN                51.6     52.5     51.9

10:15 AM ES S&P Global Composite PMI JAN                        49.9                 50.5

10:45 AM IT S&P Global Services PMI JAN                 49.9     51        50.3

10:45 AM IT S&P Global Composite PMI JAN             49.6                 50

10:50 AM FR S&P Global Services PMI Final JAN                   49.5     49.2     49.2

10:50 AM FR S&P Global Composite PMI Final JAN               49.1     49        49

10:55 AM DE S&P Global Services PMI Final JAN                  49.2     50.4     50.4

10:55 AM DE S&P Global Composite PMI Final JAN              49        49.7     49.7

11:00 AM EA S&P Global Services PMI Final JAN                   49.8     50.7     50.7

11:00 AM EA S&P Global Composite PMI Final JAN               49.3     50.2     50.2

11:00 AM EA ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

11:30 AM GB S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI Final JAN                49.9     48        48

11:30 AM GB S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI Final JAN        49        47.8     47.8

12:00 PM EA PPI MoM DEC                -0.9%   -0.4%   -1.2%

12:00 PM EA PPI YoY DEC                   27.1%  22.5%  24.8%

02:15 PM GB BoE Pill Speech

03:00 PM EA ECB Elderson Speech

03:30 PM US Unemployment Rate JAN                      3.5%    3.6%    3.6%

03:30 PM US Non Farm Payrolls JAN              223K    185K    190K

03:30 PM US Participation Rate JAN              62.3%              62.3%

03:30 PM US Average Hourly Earnings MoM JAN                 0.3%    0.3%    0.3%

03:30 PM US Average Hourly Earnings YoY JAN                    4.6%    4.3%    4.4%

03:30 PM US Manufacturing Payrolls JAN                 8K        5K        5K

03:30 PM US Nonfarm Payrolls Private JAN               220K    180K    190K

03:30 PM US Government Payrolls JAN                     3K                    0K

03:30 PM US Average Weekly Hours JAN                  34.3     34.3     34.4

04:45 PM US S&P Global Services PMI Final JAN                   44.7     46.6     46.6

04:45 PM US S&P Global Composite PMI Final JAN               45        46.6     46.6

05:00 PM US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI JAN                     49.6     50.3     50.6

05:00 PM US ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment JAN                   49.8                 50

05:00 PM US ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders JAN                    45.2                 47

05:00 PM US ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity JAN  54.7                    52

05:00 PM US ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices JAN                 67.6                 66

08:00 PM US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count FEB/03             771

08:00 PM US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count FEB/03                 609

Friday’s earnings reports: TWST ZBH CI CBOE PIPR AON

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