Interest rate policy will be on center stage for one more week. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Bank of Canada (BAC) are expected to hike interest rates again but at a slower pace. In the USA, the focus will be on the ISM services survey on Monday, and the producer prices (PPI) on Friday as the blackout period starts ahead of the next important FOMC on December 13 and 14. Most analysts now see a terminal rate at 5%-5.25%, but the strong labour market now in my opinion might open the way for a higher terminal rate.
Monday, December 5
The week starts with the November ISM Services index. The expectations are at 53.7, the previous reading was at 54.4. The factory orders are expected at 0.7%.
| Consensus | Previous | |||||||
| 10:45 | EUR | S&P Global Services PMI(Nov) | 47.6 | 46.4 | ||||
| 10:50 | EUR | S&P Global Composite PMI(Nov) | 48.8 | 48.8 | ||||
| 10:50 | EUR | S&P Global Services PMI(Nov) | 49.4 | 49.4 | ||||
| 10:55 | EUR | S&P Global/BME Composite PMI(Nov) | 46.4 | 46.4 | ||||
| 10:55 | EUR | S&P Global/BME Services PMI(Nov) | 46.4 | 46.4 | ||||
| 11:00 | EUR | S&P Global Composite PMI(Nov) | 47.8 | 47.8 | ||||
| 11:00 | EUR | S&P Global Services PMI(Nov) | 48.6 | 48.6 | ||||
| 11:30 | GBP | S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI(Nov) | – | 48.3 | ||||
| 11:30 | GBP | S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI(Nov) | 48.8 | 48.8 | ||||
| 11:30 | EUR | Sentix Investor Confidence(Dec) | -27.1 | -30.9 | ||||
| 12:00 | EUR | Retail Sales (MoM)(Oct) | -0.6% | 0.4% | ||||
| 12:00 | EUR | Retail Sales (YoY)(Oct) | 2.7% | -0.6% | ||||
| 15:30 | CAD | Building Permits (MoM)(Oct) | -2% | -17.5% | ||||
| 16:45 | USD | S&P Global Composite PMI(Nov) | 46.3 | 46.3 | ||||
| 16:45 | USD | S&P Global Services PMI(Nov) | 46.1 | 46.1 | ||||
| 17:00 | USD | Factory Orders (MoM)(Oct) | 0.7% | 0.2% | ||||
| 17:00 | USD | ISM Services Employment Index(Nov) | 51 | 49.1 | ||||
| 17:00 | USD | ISM Services New Orders Index(Nov) | 58.5 | 56.5 | ||||
| 17:00 | USD | ISM Services PMI(Nov) | 53.7 | 54.4 | ||||
| 17:00 | USD | ISM Services Prices Paid(Nov) | 73.6 | 70.7 | ||||
Monday earnings reports: GTLB SUMO SAIC
Tuesday, December 6
Tuesday is RBA day and the expectations are for a 25 basis points rate hike το 3,1%. Investors are betting on a pause in the tightening cycle after the drop in inflation reported in October. Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiked rates by 75% at 4.25% the previous week.
| 00:01 | GBP | BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales (YoY)(Nov) | – | 1.2% | ||||||
| 00:30 | AUD | Current Account Balance(Q3) | – | 18.3B | ||||||
| 03:30 | AUD | RBA Interest Rate Decision | – | 2.85% | ||||||
| 03:30 | AUD | RBA Rate Statement | ||||||||
| 07:00 | EUR | EcoFin Meeting | – | – | ||||||
| 07:00 | EUR | Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY)(Oct) | -7.5% | – 10.8% | ||||||
| 07:00 | EUR | Factory Orders s.a. (MoM)(Oct) | -0.5% | -4% | ||||||
| 09:30 | GBP | S&P Global Construction PMI(Nov) | 52.7 | 53.2 | ||||||
Tuesday’s earnings reports: AZO FERG MDB SWBI TOL
Wednesday, December 7
Wednesday is a Bank of Canada day and markets have fully discounted a 25 basis points hike and another 25 basis points in the next month. BAC surprised markets in October with a 50 basis points hike which was below the expectations of a 75 basis points hike.
| 00:30 | AUD | Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)(Q3) | 0.7% | 0.9% | ||||||
| 00:30 | AUD | Gross Domestic Product (YoY)(Q3) | 1.8% | 3.6% | ||||||
| 03:00 | CNY | Exports (YoY)(Nov) | – | -0.3% | ||||||
| 03:00 | CNY | Exports (YoY) CNY(Nov) | – | 7% | ||||||
| 03:00 | CNY | Imports (YoY)(Nov) | -0.2% | -0.7% | ||||||
| 03:00 | CNY | Imports (YoY) CNY(Nov) | 4.1% | 6.8% | ||||||
| 03:00 | CNY | Trade Balance CNY(Nov) | 575.45B | 586.81B | ||||||
| 03:00 | CNY | Trade Balance USD(Nov) | $87.87B | $85.15B | ||||||
| 05:00 | JPY | Coincident Index(Oct) PREL | 101.1 | 101.4 | ||||||
| 05:00 | JPY | Leading Economic Index(Oct) PREL | 96.6 | 97.5 | ||||||
| 06:45 | CHF | Unemployment Rate s.a (MoM)(Nov) | 2.1% | 2.1% | ||||||
| 07:00 | GBP | Halifax House Prices (MoM)(Nov) | 0.9% | -0.4% | ||||||
| 07:00 | GBP | Halifax House Prices (YoY/3m)(Nov) | 7.9% | 8.3% | ||||||
| 07:00 | EUR | Industrial Production n.s.a. w.d.a. (YoY)(Oct) | 2.3% | 2.6% | ||||||
| 07:00 | EUR | Industrial Production s.a. (MoM)(Oct) | 0% | 0.6% | ||||||
| 07:45 | EUR | Current Account(Oct) | €-6.4B | €-7.3B | ||||||
| 07:45 | EUR | Exports, EUR(Oct) | – | €52.014B | ||||||
| 07:45 | EUR | Imports, EUR(Oct) | – | €69.53B | ||||||
| 07:45 | EUR | Trade Balance EUR(Oct) | – | €-17.49B | ||||||
| 09:00 | EUR | Retail Sales n.s.a (YoY)(Oct) | 5.2% | 4.1% | ||||||
| 09:00 | EUR | Retail Sales s.a. (MoM)(Oct) | 0.1% | 0.5% | ||||||
| 09:40 | EUR | 12-Month Letras Auction | – | 2.537% | ||||||
| 09:40 | EUR | 6-Month Letras Auction | – | 2.003% | ||||||
| 10:00 | EUR | Employment Change (QoQ)(Q3) | 0.2% | 0.2% | ||||||
| 10:00 | EUR | Employment Change (YoY)(Q3) | 1.7% | 1.7% | ||||||
| 10:00 | EUR | Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ)(Q3) | 0.2% | 0.2% | ||||||
| 10:00 | EUR | Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY)(Q3) | 2.1% | 2.1% | ||||||
| 12:00 | USD | MBA Mortgage Applications(Dec 2) | – | -0.8% | ||||||
| 13:30 | USD | Nonfarm Productivity(Q3) | 0.3% | 0.3% | ||||||
| 13:30 | USD | Unit Labor Costs(Q3) | 3.5% | 3.5% | ||||||
| 15:00 | CAD | BoC Interest Rate Decision | – | 3.75% | ||||||
| 15:00 | CAD | BoC Rate Statement | ||||||||
| 15:30 | USD | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Dec 2) | – | -12.58M | ||||||
| 20:00 | USD | Consumer Credit Change (Oct) | $33.33B | $24.98B | ||||||
Wednesday earnings reports: GME CPB DSGX KFY THO UNFI
The expectations for GME are for a loss of -$0.26.
Thursday, December 8
On Thursday the Initial Jobless Claims is expected at 230,000, the previous reading was at 225,000
| 00:01 | GBP | RICS Housing Price Balance(Nov) | – | -2% | ||||||
| 00:30 | AUD | Exports (MoM)(Oct) | – | 7% | ||||||
| 00:30 | AUD | Imports (MoM)(Oct) | – | 0.4% | ||||||
| 00:30 | AUD | RBA Bulletin(Q3) | ||||||||
| 00:30 | AUD | Trade Balance (MoM)(Oct) | 10,723M | 12,444M | ||||||
| 05:00 | JPY | Eco Watchers Survey: Current(Nov) | 49.3 | 49.9 | ||||||
| 05:00 | JPY | Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook(Nov) | 47.9 | 46.4 | ||||||
| 13:30 | USD | Continuing Jobless Claims (Nov 25) | – | 1.608M | ||||||
| 13:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims (Dec 2) | 230k | 225K | ||||||
| 13:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average(Dec 2) | – | 228.75K | ||||||
| 15:30 | USD | EIA Natural Gas Storage Change(Dec 2) | – | -81B | ||||||
| 16:30 | USD | 4-Week Bill Auction | – | 3.95% | ||||||
| 21:45 | NZD | Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM)(Nov) | 0.2% | 1% | ||||||
| 21:45 | NZD | Electronic Card Retail Sales (YoY)(Nov) | 12.9% | 16.6% | ||||||
| 21:45 | NZD | Manufacturing Sales (Q3) | -2.4% | -4.9% | ||||||
Thursday’s earnings reports: ORCL AVGO COST LULU DOCU CIEN MOMO FIZZ
Analysts expect Oracle to report earnings of $1.17 per share.
Friday, December 9
The U.S. Producer Price Index is expected at 0.1% (MoM) while the Producer Price Index excluding Food & Energy (MoM) is expected at 0.3%.
| 01:30 | CNY | Consumer Price Index (MoM)(Nov) | 0.1% | 0.1% | |||||||
| 01:30 | CNY | Consumer Price Index (YoY)(Nov) | 1% | 2.1% | |||||||
| 01:30 | CNY | Producer Price Index (YoY)(Nov) | -1.5% | -1.3% | |||||||
| 08:00 | EUR | Industrial Output Cal Adjusted (YoY)(Oct) | 4.6% | 3.6% | |||||||
| 09:30 | GBP | Consumer Inflation Expectations | – | 4.9% | |||||||
| 13:30 | USD | Producer Price Index (MoM)(Nov) | 0.1% | 0.2% | |||||||
| 13:30 | USD | Producer Price Index (YoY)(Nov) | 7.4% | 8% | |||||||
| 13:30 | USD | Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)(Nov) | 0.3% | 0% | |||||||
| 13:30 | USD | Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)(Nov) | 6% | 6.7% | |||||||
| 13:30 | CAD | Capacity Utilization(Q3) | 83% | 83.8% | |||||||
| 15:00 | USD | Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index(Dec) prel | 53.3 | 56.8 | |||||||
| 15:00 | USD | UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation(Dec) prel | – | 3% | |||||||
| 15:00 | USD | Wholesale Inventories(Oct) | – | 0.8% | |||||||
| 17:00 | USD | USDA WASDE Report | |||||||||
| 18:00 | USD | Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count | – | 627 | |||||||
| 20:30 | USD | CFTC Gold NC Net Positions | – | $110K | |||||||
| 20:30 | USD | CFTC Oil NC Net Positions | – | 239.7K | |||||||
| 20:30 | USD | CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions | – | $-204.2K | |||||||
| 20:30 | GBP | CFTC GBP NC Net Positions | – | £-36.6K | |||||||
| 20:30 | JPY | CFTC JPY NC Net Positions | – | ¥-67.4K | |||||||
| 20:30 | EUR | CFTC EUR NC Net Positions | – | €122.2K | |||||||
| 20:30 | AUD | CFTC AUD NC Net Positions | – | $-44.6K | |||||||
Friday’s earnings reports: CBRL GCO LI AZRE SIF
Nikolas has been involved in the finance industry for over fifteen years spanning across Europe and USA with a depth of knowledge and experience within many aspects of the financial markets. Nikolas gained several years experience with some of the Europe’s leading Brokers, as equity analyst, and trader managing accounts for both Private and Corporate Investors. He enjoys both the fundamental and technical aspects of trading focusing on stock markets and all FX majors. Currently, Nikolas provides analysis and comments to online financial publications. Educational background in Economics (BSc), and Finance (MSc).
