February 24, 2024
London, UK

Key Events in the Week Ahead 5/11-12-2022

Key Events week ISM Services USDJPY traders

Interest rate policy will be on center stage for one more week. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Bank of Canada (BAC) are expected to hike interest rates again but at a slower pace. In the USA, the focus will be on the ISM services survey on Monday, and the producer prices (PPI) on Friday as the blackout period starts ahead of the next important FOMC on December 13 and 14. Most analysts now see a terminal rate at 5%-5.25%, but the strong labour market now in my opinion might open the way for a higher terminal rate.

Monday, December 5

The week starts with the November ISM Services index. The expectations are at 53.7, the previous reading was at 54.4.  The factory orders are expected at 0.7%.

ConsensusPrevious
10:45EURS&P Global Services PMI(Nov) 47.646.4
10:50EURS&P Global Composite PMI(Nov) 48.848.8
10:50EURS&P Global Services PMI(Nov) 49.449.4
10:55EURS&P Global/BME Composite PMI(Nov) 46.446.4
10:55EURS&P Global/BME Services PMI(Nov) 46.446.4
11:00EURS&P Global Composite PMI(Nov) 47.847.8
11:00EURS&P Global Services PMI(Nov) 48.648.6
11:30GBPS&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI(Nov) 48.3
11:30GBPS&P Global/CIPS Services PMI(Nov) 48.848.8
11:30EURSentix Investor Confidence(Dec) -27.1-30.9
12:00EURRetail Sales (MoM)(Oct) -0.6%0.4%
12:00EURRetail Sales (YoY)(Oct) 2.7%-0.6%
15:30CADBuilding Permits (MoM)(Oct) -2%-17.5%
16:45USDS&P Global Composite PMI(Nov) 46.346.3
16:45USDS&P Global Services PMI(Nov) 46.146.1
17:00USDFactory Orders (MoM)(Oct) 0.7%0.2%
17:00USDISM Services Employment Index(Nov) 5149.1
17:00USDISM Services New Orders Index(Nov) 58.556.5
17:00USDISM Services PMI(Nov) 53.754.4
17:00USDISM Services Prices Paid(Nov) 73.670.7

Monday earnings reports: GTLB SUMO SAIC

Tuesday, December 6

Tuesday is RBA day and the expectations are for a 25 basis points rate hike το 3,1%. Investors are betting on a pause in the tightening cycle after the drop in inflation reported in October. Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiked rates by 75% at 4.25% the previous week.

00:01GBPBRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales (YoY)(Nov) 1.2%
00:30AUDCurrent Account Balance(Q3) 18.3B
03:30AUDRBA Interest Rate Decision 2.85%
03:30AUDRBA Rate Statement  
07:00EUREcoFin Meeting 
07:00EURFactory Orders n.s.a. (YoY)(Oct) -7.5%  10.8%
07:00EURFactory Orders s.a. (MoM)(Oct) -0.5%-4%
09:30GBPS&P Global Construction PMI(Nov) 52.753.2

Tuesday’s earnings reports: AZO FERG MDB SWBI TOL

Wednesday, December 7

Wednesday is a Bank of Canada day and markets have fully discounted a 25 basis points hike and another 25 basis points in the next month. BAC surprised markets in October with a 50 basis points hike which was below the expectations of a 75 basis points hike.

00:30AUDGross Domestic Product (QoQ)(Q3) 0.7%0.9%
00:30AUDGross Domestic Product (YoY)(Q3) 1.8%3.6%
03:00CNYExports (YoY)(Nov) -0.3%
03:00CNYExports (YoY) CNY(Nov) 7%
03:00CNYImports (YoY)(Nov) -0.2%-0.7%
03:00CNYImports (YoY) CNY(Nov) 4.1%6.8%
03:00CNYTrade Balance CNY(Nov) 575.45B586.81B
03:00CNYTrade Balance USD(Nov) $87.87B$85.15B
05:00JPYCoincident Index(Oct) PREL  101.1101.4
05:00JPYLeading Economic Index(Oct) PREL  96.697.5
06:45CHFUnemployment Rate s.a (MoM)(Nov) 2.1%2.1%
07:00GBPHalifax House Prices (MoM)(Nov) 0.9%-0.4%
07:00GBPHalifax House Prices (YoY/3m)(Nov) 7.9%8.3%
07:00EURIndustrial Production n.s.a. w.d.a. (YoY)(Oct) 2.3%2.6%
07:00EURIndustrial Production s.a. (MoM)(Oct) 0%0.6%
07:45EURCurrent Account(Oct) €-6.4B€-7.3B
07:45EURExports, EUR(Oct) €52.014B
07:45EURImports, EUR(Oct) €69.53B
07:45EURTrade Balance EUR(Oct) €-17.49B
09:00EURRetail Sales n.s.a (YoY)(Oct) 5.2%4.1%
09:00EURRetail Sales s.a. (MoM)(Oct) 0.1%0.5%
09:40EUR12-Month Letras Auction 2.537%
09:40EUR6-Month Letras Auction 2.003%
10:00EUREmployment Change (QoQ)(Q3) 0.2%0.2%
10:00EUREmployment Change (YoY)(Q3) 1.7%1.7%
10:00EURGross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ)(Q3) 0.2%0.2%
10:00EURGross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY)(Q3) 2.1%2.1%
12:00USDMBA Mortgage Applications(Dec 2) -0.8%
13:30USDNonfarm Productivity(Q3) 0.3%0.3%
13:30USDUnit Labor Costs(Q3) 3.5%3.5%
15:00CADBoC Interest Rate Decision 3.75%
15:00CADBoC Rate Statement  
15:30USDEIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Dec 2) -12.58M
20:00USDConsumer Credit Change (Oct) $33.33B$24.98B

Wednesday earnings reports: GME CPB DSGX KFY THO UNFI

The expectations for GME are for a loss of -$0.26.

Thursday, December 8

On Thursday the Initial Jobless Claims is expected at 230,000, the previous reading was at 225,000

00:01GBPRICS Housing Price Balance(Nov) -2%
00:30AUDExports (MoM)(Oct) 7%
00:30AUDImports (MoM)(Oct) 0.4%
00:30AUDRBA Bulletin(Q3)  
00:30AUDTrade Balance (MoM)(Oct) 10,723M12,444M
05:00JPYEco Watchers Survey: Current(Nov) 49.349.9
05:00JPYEco Watchers Survey: Outlook(Nov) 47.946.4
13:30USDContinuing Jobless Claims (Nov 25) 1.608M
13:30USDInitial Jobless Claims (Dec 2) 230k225K
13:30USDInitial Jobless Claims 4-week average(Dec 2) 228.75K
15:30USDEIA Natural Gas Storage Change(Dec 2) -81B
16:30USD4-Week Bill Auction 3.95%
21:45NZDElectronic Card Retail Sales (MoM)(Nov) 0.2%1%
21:45NZDElectronic Card Retail Sales (YoY)(Nov) 12.9%16.6%
21:45NZDManufacturing Sales (Q3) -2.4%-4.9%

Thursday’s earnings reports: ORCL AVGO COST LULU DOCU CIEN MOMO FIZZ

Analysts expect Oracle to report earnings of $1.17 per share.

Friday, December 9

The U.S. Producer Price Index is expected at 0.1% (MoM) while the Producer Price Index excluding Food & Energy (MoM) is expected at 0.3%.

01:30CNYConsumer Price Index (MoM)(Nov) 0.1%0.1% 
01:30CNYConsumer Price Index (YoY)(Nov) 1%2.1% 
01:30CNYProducer Price Index (YoY)(Nov) -1.5%-1.3% 
08:00EURIndustrial Output Cal Adjusted (YoY)(Oct) 4.6%3.6% 
09:30GBPConsumer Inflation Expectations 4.9% 
13:30USDProducer Price Index (MoM)(Nov) 0.1%0.2% 
13:30USDProducer Price Index (YoY)(Nov) 7.4%8% 
13:30USDProducer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)(Nov) 0.3%0% 
13:30USDProducer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)(Nov) 6%6.7% 
13:30CADCapacity Utilization(Q3) 83%83.8% 
15:00USDMichigan Consumer Sentiment Index(Dec) prel  53.356.8 
15:00USDUoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation(Dec) prel  3% 
15:00USDWholesale Inventories(Oct) 0.8% 
17:00USDUSDA WASDE Report  
18:00USDBaker Hughes US Oil Rig Count 627
20:30USDCFTC Gold NC Net Positions $110K
20:30USDCFTC Oil NC Net Positions 239.7K
20:30USDCFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions $-204.2K
20:30GBPCFTC GBP NC Net Positions £-36.6K
20:30JPYCFTC JPY NC Net Positions ¥-67.4K
20:30EURCFTC EUR NC Net Positions €122.2K
20:30AUDCFTC AUD NC Net Positions $-44.6K

Friday’s earnings reports: CBRL GCO LI AZRE SIF

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