February 24, 2024
London, UK

Key Events in the Week 16/22-1-2023

Key Events week ISM Services USDJPY traders

Traders digest the recent rally in equities as the expectations point to a 25 basis points rate hike in the next FOMC meeting as the inflation shows clear signs of slowing down. The terminal rate is now expected at 5%. Data this week include PPI, industrial production and retail sales among other. Risk on mood boosted risky assets and crypto markets with bitcoin breaking above the 20,000 mark.

Monday, January 16

US markets will be closed on Monday in respect to Martin Luther King Jr Day.

01:50 AM JP PPI MoM DEC                0.6%    0.3%    0.4%

01:50 AM JP PPI YoY DEC                   9.3%    9.5%    8.7%

02:00 AM AU TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM DEC                    1%

02:30 AM AU Building Permits MoM Final NOV                    -5.6%   -9.0%   -9.0%

02:30 AM AU Building Permits YoY Final NOV                    -6.2%               -15.1%

02:30 AM AU Private House Approvals MoM Final NOV                   -1.1%                -2.5%

03:30 AM CN House Price Index YoY DEC                    -1.6%               -2%

08:00 AM JP Machine Tool Orders YoY DEC              -7.8%               -4%

09:00 AM DE Wholesale Prices MoM DEC                -0.9%               -1.2%

09:00 AM DE Wholesale Prices YoY DEC                   14.9%              13.3%

09:45 AM FR Budget Balance NOV                €-143.22B                    €-145B

03:30 PM CA Manufacturing Sales MoM Final NOV             2.8%    0.5%    0.2%

Monday’s earnings reports: DIT AZRE AVYA LEO TRX POL MITK

Tuesday, January 17

Investors’ focus will be on the jobs number from the UK and the ZEW Sentiment Index in Germany with expectations at -15 for January, the previous reading was at -23.3.

The Empire State Manufacturing Index for January expected at -8.7, and the previous reading was at -11.2.

In Canada, the yearly Inflation rate is forecasted at 6.3% for December, a drop from the 6.8% reading in November.

01:30 AM AU Westpac Consumer Confidence Change JAN   3%                   -2.3%

01:30 AM AU Westpac Consumer Confidence Index JAN      80.3                 78.4

04:00 AM CN GDP Growth Rate YoY Q4                    3.9%    1.8%    1.5%

04:00 AM CN Industrial Production YoY DEC             2.2%    0.5%    0.8%

04:00 AM CN Retail Sales YoY DEC                -5.9%   -7.8%   -8.3%

04:00 AM CN Unemployment Rate DEC                    5.7%                5.9%

04:00 AM CN Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) YoY DEC                        5.3%    5%       5.5%

04:00 AM CN GDP Growth Rate QoQ Q4                   3.9%    -0.8%   -0.8%

04:00 AM CN Industrial Capacity Utilization Q4                    75.6%              73%

06:30 AM JP Tertiary Industry Index MoM NOV                   0.2%                0.1%

09:00 AM DE Inflation Rate YoY Final DEC                10%     8.6%    8.6%

09:00 AM DE Inflation Rate MoM Final DEC             -0.5%   -0.8%   -0.8%

09:00 AM DE CPI DEC             121.6               120.6

09:00 AM DE Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM Final DEC     0%       -1.2%   -1.2%

09:00 AM DE Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY Final DEC        11.3%  9.6%    9.6%

09:00 AM GB Claimant Count Change DEC               30.5K               16K

09:00 AM GB Unemployment Rate NOV                    3.7%    3.7%    3.7%

09:00 AM GB Average Earnings incl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) NOV  6.1%    6.1%    6.1%

09:00 AM GB Employment Change OCT                    27K      10K      15K

09:00 AM GB Average Earnings excl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) NOV 6.1%    6.3%    5.8%

09:00 AM GB HMRC Payrolls Change DEC                107K                129K

10:00 AM EA ECB Fernandez-Bollo Speech

11:00 AM IT Inflation Rate YoY Final DEC                  11.8%  11.6%  11.6%

11:00 AM IT Inflation Rate MoM Final DEC               0.5%    0.3%    0.3%

11:00 AM IT CPI Final DEC                  118.7               119

12:00 PM EA ZEW Economic Sentiment Index JAN                -23.6                -17

12:00 PM DE ZEW Economic Sentiment Index JAN                -23.3    -15       -16

12:00 PM DE ZEW Current Conditions JAN                -61.4    -58.3    -60

03:15 PM CA Housing Starts DEC                   264.2K 257.5K 244K

03:30 PM CA Inflation Rate YoY DEC             6.8%    6.3%    6.4%

03:30 PM CA Inflation Rate MoM DEC                      0.1%    -0.5%   -0.3%

03:30 PM CA Core Inflation Rate YoY DEC                 5.8%                5.9%

03:30 PM CA CPI Median YoY DEC                 5%                   4.8%

03:30 PM CA CPI Trimmed-Mean YoY DEC               5.3%                5.2%

03:30 PM CA Foreign Securities Purchases NOV                   C$8.46B

03:30 PM CA Core Inflation Rate MoM DEC              0%                   0.1%

03:30 PM CA Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians NOV                     C$-1.67B

03:30 PM US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index JAN                   -11.2    -8.7      -5.2

10:00 PM US Fed Williams Speech

EU ECOFIN Meeting

Tuesday’s earnings reports: GS MS UAL IBKR BLDE WAKE KLDO . Analysts expect Goldman Sachs to report $5.25 EPS. Morgan Stanley’s earnings estimate stands at $1.19. Analysts expect United Airlines to report after the bell earnings per share at $2.01.

Wednesday, January 18

Wednesday is the Bank of Japan decision date and the expectations are the central bank will keep interest rates unchanged at -0.1%.

In the USA retail sales are expected at -0.8% for December, while the US PPI for December is forecasted at -0.1%.

01:00 AM JP Reuters Tankan Index JAN                     8                      6

01:50 AM JP Machinery Orders MoM NOV               5.4%    -0.9%   -3%

01:50 AM JP Machinery Orders YoY NOV                  0.4%    2.4%    -1.1%

05:00 AM JP BoJ Interest Rate Decision                     -0.1%               -0.1%

05:00 AM JP BoJ Quarterly Outlook Report

06:30 AM JP Capacity Utilization MoM NOV             2.2%                -0.7%

06:30 AM JP Industrial Production YoY Final NOV                 3.8%                -1.3%

06:30 AM JP Industrial Production MoM Final NOV                      -3.2%   -0.1%   -0.1%

09:00 AM EU New Car Registrations YoY DEC             16.3%              11.2%

09:00 AM GB Inflation Rate YoY DEC             10.7%  10.6%  10.5%

09:00 AM GB Inflation Rate MoM DEC                      0.4%    0.4%    0.4%

09:00 AM GB Core Inflation Rate YoY DEC                6.3%    6.3%    6.4%

09:00 AM GB Core Inflation Rate MoM DEC             0.3%    0.4%    0.5%

09:00 AM GB PPI Core Output YoY DEC                     13.3%              11.5%

09:00 AM GB PPI Core Output MoM DEC                  0.5%                0.4%

09:00 AM GB PPI Input YoY DEC                     19.5%              18.7%

09:00 AM GB Retail Price Index YoY DEC                  14%     13.9%  13.8%

09:00 AM GB Retail Price Index MoM DEC               0.6%    1%       0.9%

09:00 AM GB PPI Input MoM DEC                  0.7%                0.5%

09:00 AM GB PPI Output YoY DEC                  17.2%              14.6%

09:00 AM GB PPI Output MoM DEC               0.9%                0.3%

09:00 AM GB New Car Registrations YoY DEC                       23.5%              18.3%

11:30 AM GB Labour Productivity QoQ Final Q3                   0.3%                0.2%

12:00 PM EA Inflation Rate YoY Final DEC                 10.1%  9.2%    9.2%

12:00 PM EA Inflation Rate MoM Final DEC              -0.1%   -0.3%   0.1%

12:00 PM EA Construction Output YoY NOV              2.2%                2.7%

12:00 PM EA CPI Final DEC                 120.95             121.2

12:00 PM EA Core Inflation Rate YoY Final DEC                    5%       5.2%    5.2%

12:30 PM DE 30-Year Bund Auction               1.94%

02:00 PM US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate JAN/13              6.42%

02:00 PM US MBA Mortgage Applications JAN/13                1.2%

02:00 PM US MBA Mortgage Refinance Index JAN/13                      326.7

02:00 PM US MBA Mortgage Market Index JAN/13              186.7

02:00 PM US MBA Purchase Index JAN/13                159.4

03:30 PM CA Raw Materials Prices YoY DEC             8%                   13%

03:30 PM CA PPI MoM DEC               -0.4%               0.1%

03:30 PM CA PPI YoY DEC                  9.7%                9.2%

03:30 PM CA Raw Materials Prices MoM DEC                      -0.8%               0.9%

03:30 PM US PPI MoM DEC                0.3%    -0.1%   -0.1%

03:30 PM US Retail Sales MoM DEC              -0.6%   -0.8%   -0.4%

03:30 PM US Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM DEC                       -0.2%   -0.4%   -0.3%

03:30 PM US Core PPI MoM DEC                        0.4%    0.1%    0.2%

03:30 PM US Core PPI YoY DEC                      6.2%    5.6%    5.9%

03:30 PM US PPI YoY DEC                   7.4%    6.8%    6.9%

03:30 PM US Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM DEC                -0.2%               -0.1%

03:30 PM US Retail Sales YoY DEC                        6.5%                5%

03:55 PM US Redbook YoY JAN/14                 5.3%

04:00 PM US Fed Bostic Speech

04:15 PM US Industrial Production YoY DEC              2.5%                1.8%

04:15 PM US Industrial Production MoM DEC                       -0.2%   -0.1%   -0.3%

04:15 PM US Capacity Utilization DEC                 79.7%  79.6%  79.5%

04:15 PM US Manufacturing Production MoM DEC              -0.6%   -0.2%   -0.5%

04:15 PM US Manufacturing Production YoY DEC                1.2%                1.8%

04:30 PM US Fed Bullard Speech

05:00 PM US Business Inventories MoM NOV                       0.3%    0.4%    0.3%

05:00 PM US NAHB Housing Market Index JAN                     31        31        32

05:00 PM US Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM NOV             -0.7%               -0.2%

09:00 PM US Fed Beige Book

09:00 PM US Fed Harker Speech

11:00 PM US Net Long-term TIC Flows NOV              $67.8B

11:00 PM US Overall Net Capital Flows NOV             $179.9B

11:00 PM US Foreign Bond Investment NOV             $61.9B

11:30 PM US API Crude Oil Stock Change JAN/13                 14.865M

Wednesday’s earnings reports: AA SCHW EGIO TBK JBHT PNC PLD

Thursday, January 19

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index is expected at -11 in January from -13.8 in December. The Initial Jobless Claims are expected at 212k from 205k the previous week. EIA weekly crude stocks will also be released.

12:00 AM US Fed Logan Speech

01:50 AM JP Balance of Trade DEC    ¥-2027.4B       ¥-1652.8B        ¥ -1900B

01:50 AM JP Exports YoY DEC                        20%     10.1%  11%

01:50 AM JP Imports YoY DEC                        30.3%  22.4%  21%

02:00 AM AU Consumer Inflation Expectations JAN              5.2%                4.9%

02:01 AM GB RICS House Price Balance DEC                        -25%                -31%

02:30 AM AU Employment Change DEC                    64K      22.5K   25K

02:30 AM AU Full Time Employment Chg DEC                      34.2K

02:30 AM AU Part Time Employment Chg DEC                     29.8K

02:30 AM AU Unemployment Rate DEC                    3.4%    3.4%    3.4%

02:30 AM AU Participation Rate DEC             66.8%  66.8%  66.8%

05:35 AM JP 52-Week Bill Auction                 -0.0649%

05:35 AM JP 20-Year JGB Auction                  1.088%

12:30 PM EA ECB President Lagarde Speech

01:00 PM FR 10-Year Index-Linked OAT Auction                   -0.05%

02:00 PM BR Unemployment Rate NOV                    8.3%    8.2%    8.2%

02:30 PM EA ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

03:30 PM CA New Motor Vehicle Sales NOV             132.26K                       103K

03:30 PM CA Wholesale Sales MoM Final NOV                     2.1%    1.9%    1.9%

03:30 PM US Building Permits Prel DEC                    1.351M            1.37M  1.4M

03:30 PM US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index JAN                   -13.8    -11       -10

03:30 PM US Building Permits MoM Prel DEC                -10.6%              3.7%

03:30 PM US Housing Starts MoM DEC                     -0.5%               -1.9%

03:30 PM US Housing Starts DEC                   1.427M            1.358M            1.4M

03:30 PM US Initial Jobless Claims JAN/14             205K    212K    207K

03:30 PM US Jobless Claims 4-week Average JAN/14           212.5K             210K

03:30 PM US Continuing Jobless Claims JAN/07                    1634K  1655K  1640K

03:30 PM US Philly Fed Business Conditions JAN                        3.8                   3.5

03:30 PM US Philly Fed CAPEX Index JAN                   18                    15

03:30 PM US Philly Fed Employment JAN                  -1.8                  3

03:30 PM US Philly Fed New Orders JAN                   -25.8                -23

03:30 PM US Philly Fed Prices Paid JAN                     26.4                 24

04:00 PM US Fed Collins Speech

05:30 PM US EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change JAN/13                        11Bcf   -74Bcf

06:00 PM US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change JAN/13                       4.114M

06:00 PM US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change JAN/13                18.962M

06:00 PM US EIA Distillate Stocks Change JAN/13                 -1.069M

06:00 PM US EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change JAN/13             0.405M

06:00 PM US EIA Gasoline Production Change JAN/13                      0.067M

06:00 PM US EIA Crude Oil Imports Change JAN/13             2.708M

06:00 PM US EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change JAN/13                     0.831M

06:00 PM US EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change JAN/13              2.511M

06:00 PM US EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change JAN/13              0.509M

06:30 PM US 8-Week Bill Auction                  4.465%

06:30 PM US 4-Week Bill Auction                  4.370%

07:00 PM EA ECB Schnabel Speech

08:00 PM US 10-Year TIPS Auction                 1.485%

08:15 PM US Fed Brainard Speech

Thursday’s earnings reports: SRCE BANK HOMB CMA PG FUL FAST NFLX KARO KEY.

Analysts expect Netflix (NFLX) to report EPS of $0.44.

Friday, January 20

In Great Britain, the January Gfk Consumer Confidence is expected at -40 from -42 in December. Retail sales in the UK are expected at 0.4% from -0.4%.

Canada will release the retail sales for November and the expectations are at -0.5% from 1.4% in December.

01:30 AM JP Inflation Rate YoY DEC              3.8%                4%

01:30 AM JP Core Inflation Rate YoY DEC                  3.7%    4%       3.9%

01:30 AM JP Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY DEC                 2.8%                3%

01:30 AM JP Inflation Rate MoM DEC                   0.3%                0.2%

01:35 AM US Fed Williams Speech

02:01 AM GB Gfk Consumer Confidence JAN                        -42       -40       -38

09:00 AM DE PPI MoM DEC               -3.9%   -1.2%   -1.8%

09:00 AM DE PPI YoY DEC                  28.2%  20.8%  19.9%

09:00 AM GB Retail Sales MoM DEC             -0.4%   0.4%    0.3%

09:00 AM GB Retail Sales YoY DEC                -5.9%   -4.2%   -4.4%

09:00 AM GB Retail Sales ex Fuel MoM DEC             -0.3%   0.4%    0.2%

09:00 AM GB Retail Sales ex Fuel YoY DEC                -5.9%   -4.4%   -4.7%

11:00 AM DE Bundesbank Nagel Speech

12:00 PM EA ECB President Lagarde Speech

03:30 PM CA Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM NOV                      1.7%                -0.6%

03:30 PM CA Retail Sales MoM NOV                 1.4%    -0.5%   -0.5%

03:30 PM CA Retail Sales YoY NOV                6.4%                5.3%

04:00 PM US Fed Harker Speech

05:00 PM US Existing Home Sales MoM DEC                        -7.7%               -2%

05:00 PM US Existing Home Sales DEC                      4.09M  3.95M  4M

05:30 PM EA ECB Elderson Speech

08:00 PM US Fed Waller Speech

08:00 PM US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count JAN/20             775

08:00 PM US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count JAN/20                 623

01:50 AM JP BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

03:30 PM CA New Housing Price Index MoM DEC                -0.2%               -0.3%

03:30 PM CA New Housing Price Index YoY DEC             4.1%                3.8%

05:00 PM EA Consumer Confidence Flash JAN                      -22.2

05:00 PM US CB Leading Index MoM DEC                 -1%      -0.7%   -0.7%

Friday’s earnings reports: ALLY AMTB RF CSTR STT KARO SLB

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