Key events in the week ahead include the minutes of the last FOMC meeting as investors see now higher rates for longer after the economic data released the previous week. Markets now see a terminal rate of 5.28% and exclude rate cuts by the end of 2023.
Critical data will be released in the EU this week such as consumer confidence and PMIs.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce its policy decision on Wednesday, with expectations for a 50 bps hike to 4.75%.
Tuesday, February 21
12:00 AM AU Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Flash FEB 50 49.4
12:00 AM AU Judo Bank Services PMI Flash FEB 48.6 49.4
12:00 AM AU Judo Bank Composite PMI Flash FEB 48.5 49.6
02:30 AM AU RBA Meeting Minutes
02:30 AM JP Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Flash FEB 48.9 50.4
02:30 AM JP Jibun Bank Services PMI Flash FEB 52.3 52.8
02:30 AM JP Jibun Bank Composite PMI Flash FEB 50.8 51.7
09:00 AM EU New Car Registrations YoY JAN 12.8% 10.3%
09:00 AM GB Public Sector Net Borrowing JAN £-26.6B £2.2B
09:00 AM GB Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks JAN £-27.4B £-6.95B £1.2B
10:15 AM FR S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash FEB 50.5 50.9 51.2
10:15 AM FR S&P Global Services PMI Flash FEB 49.4 49.9 50.2
10:15 AM FR S&P Global Composite PMI Flash FEB 49.1 50.1 50.4
10:30 AM DE S&P Global Services PMI Flash FEB 50.7 51 51.5
10:30 AM DE S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash FEB 47.3 47.8 48.2
10:30 AM DE S&P Global Composite PMI Flash FEB 49.9 50.4 50.4
11:00 AM EA S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash FEB 48.8 49.3 49.5
11:00 AM EA S&P Global Services PMI Flash FEB 50.8 51 51.5
11:00 AM EA S&P Global Composite PMI Flash FEB 50.3 50.6 51
11:30 AM GB S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI Flash FEB 48.7 49.2 49.3
11:30 AM GB S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI Flash FEB 47 47.4 47.5
11:30 AM GB S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI Flash FEB 48.5 48.7 49.2
12:00 PM EA ZEW Economic Sentiment Index FEB 16.7 18.5
12:00 PM DE ZEW Economic Sentiment Index FEB 16.9 22 21.5
01:00 PM GB CBI Industrial Trends Orders FEB -17 -12
02:00 PM MX Retail Sales MoM DEC -0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
02:00 PM MX Retail Sales YoY DEC 2.4% 3.2% 2.8%
03:30 PM CA Inflation Rate YoY JAN 6.3% 6.1% 5.9%
03:30 PM CA Inflation Rate MoM JAN -0.6% 0.7% 0.5%
03:30 PM CA Retail Sales MoM DEC -0.1% 0.4% -0.3%
03:30 PM CA Core Inflation Rate YoY JAN 5.4% 4.7%
03:30 PM CA Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM DEC -0.6% -0.3% -0.3%
03:30 PM CA CPI Median YoY JAN 5% 4.9%
03:30 PM CA CPI Trimmed-Mean YoY JAN 5.3% 5.2%
03:30 PM CA Core Inflation Rate MoM JAN -0.3% 0.3%
03:30 PM CA Retail Sales YoY DEC 5.2% 3.5%
04:45 PM US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash FEB 46.9 47.3 49
04:45 PM US S&P Global Composite PMI Flash FEB 46.8 47.5 48.9
04:45 PM US S&P Global Services PMI Flash FEB 46.8 47.2 48.9
Tuesday’s earnings reports: ABCL PANW CWAN RCUS AMSF TAP KLDO MTDR COIN HD CHK STAR WMT HALO
Wednesday, February 22
01:00 AM JP Reuters Tankan Index FEB -6 5
02:00 AM AU Westpac Leading Index MoM JAN -0.1% -0.2%
02:30 AM AU Construction Work Done QoQ Q4 2.2% 1.5% 1.6%
02:30 AM AU Wage Price Index YoY Q4 3.1% 3.5% 3.6%
02:30 AM AU Wage Price Index QoQ Q4 1% 1% 1.1%
03:30 AM JP BoJ Tamura Speech
08:30 AM DE North Rhine Westphalia CPI MoM JAN -1%
08:30 AM DE North Rhine Westphalia CPI YoY JAN 8.7%
09:00 AM DE Inflation Rate YoY Final JAN 8.6% 8.7% 8.7%
09:00 AM DE Inflation Rate MoM Final JAN -0.8% 1% 1.0%
09:00 AM DE CPI JAN 120.6 121.8
09:00 AM DE Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM Final JAN -1.2% 0.5% 0.5%
09:00 AM DE Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY Final JAN 9.6% 9.2% 9.2%
09:45 AM FR Business Confidence FEB 103 103 104
09:45 AM FR Business Climate Indicator FEB 102 103
10:00 AM EA ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting
11:00 AM DE Ifo Business Climate FEB 90.2 91.4 91.6
11:00 AM DE Hesse CPI YoY JAN 8.1%
11:00 AM DE Hesse CPI MoM JAN -0.7%
11:00 AM DE Ifo Current Conditions FEB 94.1 95 95.1
11:00 AM DE Ifo Expectations FEB 86.4 88.3 88.5
11:00 AM DE Baden Wuerttemberg CPI MoM JAN -0.4%
11:00 AM DE Baden Wuerttemberg CPI YoY JAN 8.5%
11:00 AM DE Bavaria CPI YoY JAN 9.2%
11:00 AM DE Bavaria CPI MoM JAN -1.1%
11:00 AM DE Brandenburg CPI YoY JAN 9.1%
11:00 AM DE Brandenburg CPI MoM JAN -0.6%
11:00 AM IT Inflation Rate YoY Final JAN 11.6% 10.1%
11:00 AM IT Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY Final JAN 12.3% 10.9% 10.9%
11:00 AM IT Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM Final JAN 0.2% -1.3% -1.3%
11:00 AM IT Inflation Rate MoM Final JAN 0.3% 0.2%
11:00 AM IT CPI Final JAN 119
12:00 PM DE Saxony CPI YoY JAN 8.7%
12:00 PM DE Saxony CPI MoM JAN -0.6%
12:00 PM IT Construction Output YoY DEC 5.3% -3.0%
12:30 PM DE 10-Year Bund Auction 2.27%
02:00 PM US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate FEB/17 6.39%
02:00 PM US MBA Mortgage Applications FEB/17 -7.7%
02:00 PM US MBA Mortgage Refinance Index FEB/17 480.5
02:00 PM US MBA Mortgage Market Index FEB/17 230.4
02:00 PM US MBA Purchase Index FEB/17 179.6
03:30 PM CA New Housing Price Index MoM JAN 0% -0.3%
03:30 PM CA New Housing Price Index YoY JAN 3.9% 2.9%
03:55 PM US Redbook YoY FEB/18 4.9%
09:00 PM US FOMC Minutes
11:30 PM US API Crude Oil Stock Change FEB/17 10.507M
Wednesday’s earnings reports: ALLE KALU MNST TOL FAT BRY BIDU GKOS SM IMAX
Thursday, February 23
01:30 AM US Fed Williams Speech
02:30 AM AU Building Capital Expenditure QoQ Q4 0.5% 0.8%
02:30 AM AU Plant Machinery Capital Expenditure QoQ Q4 -1.6% 1.2%
02:30 AM AU Private Capital Expenditure QoQ Q4 -0.6% 1.3% 1.5%
03:00 AM KR Interest Rate Decision 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%
04:10 AM SG Current Account Q4 $30.38B $28B
07:00 AM SG Core Inflation Rate YoY JAN 5.1% 5.6% 5.0%
07:15 AM AU RBA Bullock Speech
07:15 AM AU RBA Cagliarini Speech
11:30 AM GB BoE L Mann Speech
12:00 PM EA Inflation Rate YoY Final JAN 9.2% 8.6% 8.5%
12:00 PM EA Inflation Rate MoM Final JAN -0.4% -0.2% -0.4%
12:00 PM EA Core Inflation Rate YoY Final JAN 5.2% 5.2% 5.2%
12:00 PM EA CPI Final JAN 120.52 120.0
12:45 PM GB BoE Cunliffe Speech
01:00 PM CA CFIB Business Barometer FEB 51.4 49
01:00 PM GB CBI Distributive Trades FEB -23 -14
03:30 PM CA Average Weekly Earnings YoY DEC 4.2% 3.0%
03:30 PM US Initial Jobless Claims FEB/18 194K 200K 197.0K
03:30 PM US GDP Price Index QoQ 2nd Est Q4 4.4% 3.5% 3.5%
03:30 PM US GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est Q4 3.2% 2.9% 2.8%
03:30 PM US Chicago Fed National Activity Index JAN -0.49 -0.25
03:30 PM US PCE Prices QoQ 2nd Est Q4 4.3% 3.2%
03:30 PM US Core PCE Prices QoQ 2nd Est Q4 4.7% 3.9% 3.9%
03:30 PM US Real Consumer Spending QoQ 2nd Est Q4 2.3% 2.0%
03:30 PM US GDP Sales QoQ 2nd Est Q4 4.5% 1.4%
03:30 PM US Jobless Claims 4-week Average FEB/18 189.5K 192.25K
03:30 PM US Continuing Jobless Claims FEB/11 1696K 1691.0K
05:30 PM US EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change FEB/17 -100Bcf
05:50 PM US Fed Bostic Speech
06:00 PM US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change FEB/17 2.317M
06:00 PM US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change FEB/17 16.283M
06:00 PM US EIA Distillate Stocks Change FEB/17 -1.285M
06:00 PM US EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change FEB/17 -0.349M
06:00 PM US EIA Gasoline Production Change FEB/17 -0.004M
06:00 PM US EIA Crude Oil Imports Change FEB/17 -1.072M
06:00 PM US EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change FEB/17 0.659M
06:00 PM US EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change FEB/17 -0.155M
06:00 PM US Kansas Fed Composite Index FEB -1 2
06:00 PM US Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index FEB -4 1
06:00 PM US EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change FEB/17 -0.383M
07:00 PM CA 10-Year Bond Auction 2.869%
Thursday’s earnings reports: BABA ALG ALTR KTOS ADSK AGIO BALY BBWI BKNG CARS ZETA BYND WBD NKLA CVNA DISH MNKD
Friday, February 24
01:30 AM JP Inflation Rate YoY JAN 4% 4.2%
01:30 AM JP Core Inflation Rate YoY JAN 4% 4.2% 4.1%
01:30 AM JP Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY JAN 3% 3%
01:30 AM JP Inflation Rate MoM JAN 0.3% 0.2%
01:50 AM JP Foreign Bond Investment FEB/18 ¥716.5B
01:50 AM JP Stock Investment by Foreigners FEB/18 ¥105.1B
02:01 AM GB Gfk Consumer Confidence FEB -45 -42 -42
02:01 AM GB Car Production YoY JAN -17.9% 0.5%
05:35 AM JP 3-Month Bill Auction -0.1526%
07:00 AM SG Industrial Production MoM JAN 3.2% 0% 0.5%
07:00 AM SG Industrial Production YoY JAN -3.1% 4% -0.7%
09:00 AM DE GfK Consumer Confidence MAR -33.9 -30.4 -34
09:00 AM DE GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q4 0.5% -0.2% -0.2%
09:00 AM DE GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q4 1.4% 1.1% 1.1%
09:45 AM FR Consumer Confidence FEB 80 81 81
03:30 PM CA Manufacturing Sales MoM Prel JAN -1.5% -0.2%
03:30 PM CA Wholesale Sales MoM Prel JAN -0.8% -0.2%
03:30 PM US Core PCE Price Index MoM JAN 0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
03:30 PM US Personal Income MoM JAN 0.2% 0.9% 0.7%
03:30 PM US Personal Spending MoM JAN -0.2% 1.3% 1.1%
03:30 PM US PCE Price Index MoM JAN 0.1% 0.3%
03:30 PM US PCE Price Index YoY JAN 5% 4.8%
03:30 PM US Core PCE Price Index YoY JAN 4.4% 4.3% 4.3%
05:00 PM US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final FEB 64.9 66.4 66.4
05:00 PM US New Home Sales MoM JAN 2.3% 0.4%
05:00 PM US New Home Sales JAN 0.616M 0.619M 0.615M
05:00 PM US Michigan Consumer Expectations Final FEB 62.7 62.3 62.3
05:00 PM US Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Final FEB 2.9% 2.9%
05:00 PM US Michigan Current Conditions Final FEB 68.4 72.6 72.6
05:00 PM US Michigan Inflation Expectations Final FEB 3.9% 4.2%
05:15 PM US Fed Mester Speech
05:15 PM US Fed Jefferson Speech
06:00 PM CA Budget Balance DEC C$-3.38B C$0.6B
06:30 PM GB BoE Tenreyro Speech
08:00 PM US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count FEB/24 760
08:00 PM US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count FEB/24 607
US 2023 US Monetary Policy Forum US Building Permits Final JAN 1.337M
US Building Permits MoM Final JAN -1.0% 0.1%
Friday’s earnings reports: ALG ACMR TBLA VICI MAIN CUBE
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