Key Events in the Week Ahead 20/26-2-2023

Key Events week ISM Services USDJPY traders

Key events in the week ahead include the minutes of the last FOMC meeting as investors see now higher rates for longer after the economic data released the previous week. Markets now see a terminal rate of 5.28% and exclude rate cuts by the end of 2023.

Critical data will be released in the EU this week such as consumer confidence and PMIs.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce its policy decision on Wednesday, with expectations for a 50 bps hike to 4.75%.   

Tuesday, February 21

12:00 AM AU Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Flash FEB        50                    49.4

12:00 AM AU Judo Bank Services PMI Flash FEB                   48.6                 49.4

12:00 AM AU Judo Bank Composite PMI Flash FEB               48.5                 49.6

02:30 AM AU RBA Meeting Minutes

02:30 AM JP Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Flash FEB         48.9                 50.4

02:30 AM JP Jibun Bank Services PMI Flash FEB                    52.3                 52.8

02:30 AM JP Jibun Bank Composite PMI Flash FEB                50.8                 51.7

09:00 AM EU New Car Registrations YoY JAN                        12.8%              10.3%

09:00 AM GB Public Sector Net Borrowing JAN         £-26.6B                        £2.2B

09:00 AM GB Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks JAN £-27.4B £-6.95B   £1.2B

10:15 AM FR S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash FEB       50.5     50.9     51.2

10:15 AM FR S&P Global Services PMI Flash FEB                  49.4     49.9     50.2

10:15 AM FR S&P Global Composite PMI Flash FEB              49.1     50.1     50.4

10:30 AM DE S&P Global Services PMI Flash FEB                  50.7     51        51.5

10:30 AM DE S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash FEB       47.3     47.8     48.2

10:30 AM DE S&P Global Composite PMI Flash FEB              49.9     50.4     50.4

11:00 AM EA S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash FEB       48.8     49.3     49.5

11:00 AM EA S&P Global Services PMI Flash FEB                  50.8     51        51.5

11:00 AM EA S&P Global Composite PMI Flash FEB              50.3     50.6     51

11:30 AM GB S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI Flash FEB    48.7     49.2     49.3

11:30 AM GB S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI Flash FEB 47     47.4     47.5

11:30 AM GB S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI Flash FEB     48.5     48.7     49.2

12:00 PM EA ZEW Economic Sentiment Index FEB                16.7                 18.5

12:00 PM DE ZEW Economic Sentiment Index FEB                16.9     22        21.5

01:00 PM GB CBI Industrial Trends Orders FEB                     -17                   -12

02:00 PM MX Retail Sales MoM DEC             -0.2%   0.4%    0.1%

02:00 PM MX Retail Sales YoY DEC                2.4%    3.2%    2.8%

03:30 PM CA Inflation Rate YoY JAN              6.3%    6.1%    5.9%

03:30 PM CA Inflation Rate MoM JAN                       -0.6%   0.7%    0.5%

03:30 PM CA Retail Sales MoM DEC              -0.1%   0.4%    -0.3%

03:30 PM CA Core Inflation Rate YoY JAN                 5.4%                4.7%

03:30 PM CA Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM DEC                       -0.6%   -0.3%   -0.3%

03:30 PM CA CPI Median YoY JAN                        5%                   4.9%

03:30 PM CA CPI Trimmed-Mean YoY JAN                5.3%                5.2%

03:30 PM CA Core Inflation Rate MoM JAN              -0.3%               0.3%

03:30 PM CA Retail Sales YoY DEC                 5.2%                3.5%

04:45 PM US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash FEB                   46.9     47.3     49

04:45 PM US S&P Global Composite PMI Flash FEB                   46.8     47.5     48.9

04:45 PM US S&P Global Services PMI Flash FEB                  46.8     47.2     48.9

Tuesday’s earnings reports: ABCL PANW CWAN RCUS AMSF TAP KLDO MTDR COIN HD CHK STAR WMT HALO

Wednesday, February 22

01:00 AM JP Reuters Tankan Index FEB                     -6                     5

02:00 AM AU Westpac Leading Index MoM JAN                   -0.1%               -0.2%

02:30 AM AU Construction Work Done QoQ Q4             2.2%    1.5%    1.6%

02:30 AM AU Wage Price Index YoY Q4                    3.1%    3.5%    3.6%

02:30 AM AU Wage Price Index QoQ Q4                   1%       1%       1.1%

03:30 AM JP BoJ Tamura Speech

08:30 AM DE North Rhine Westphalia CPI MoM JAN                        -1%

08:30 AM DE North Rhine Westphalia CPI YoY JAN               8.7%

09:00 AM DE Inflation Rate YoY Final JAN                 8.6%    8.7%    8.7%

09:00 AM DE Inflation Rate MoM Final JAN              -0.8%   1%       1.0%

09:00 AM DE CPI JAN              120.6               121.8

09:00 AM DE Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM Final JAN     -1.2%   0.5%    0.5%

09:00 AM DE Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY Final JAN        9.6%    9.2%    9.2%

09:45 AM FR Business Confidence FEB                      103      103      104

09:45 AM FR Business Climate Indicator FEB                        102                  103

10:00 AM EA ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting

11:00 AM DE Ifo Business Climate FEB                      90.2     91.4     91.6

11:00 AM DE Hesse CPI YoY JAN                    8.1%

11:00 AM DE Hesse CPI MoM JAN                 -0.7%

11:00 AM DE Ifo Current Conditions FEB                   94.1     95        95.1

11:00 AM DE Ifo Expectations FEB                 86.4     88.3     88.5

11:00 AM DE Baden Wuerttemberg CPI MoM JAN               -0.4%

11:00 AM DE Baden Wuerttemberg CPI YoY JAN                  8.5%

11:00 AM DE Bavaria CPI YoY JAN                 9.2%

11:00 AM DE Bavaria CPI MoM JAN              -1.1%

11:00 AM DE Brandenburg CPI YoY JAN                    9.1%

11:00 AM DE Brandenburg CPI MoM JAN                 -0.6%

11:00 AM IT Inflation Rate YoY Final JAN                   11.6%              10.1%

11:00 AM IT Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY Final JAN          12.3%  10.9%  10.9%

11:00 AM IT Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM Final JAN       0.2%    -1.3%   -1.3%

11:00 AM IT Inflation Rate MoM Final JAN                     0.3%                0.2%

11:00 AM IT CPI Final JAN                  119

12:00 PM DE Saxony CPI YoY JAN                   8.7%

12:00 PM DE Saxony CPI MoM JAN                -0.6%

12:00 PM IT Construction Output YoY DEC                5.3%                -3.0%

12:30 PM DE 10-Year Bund Auction               2.27%

02:00 PM US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate FEB/17              6.39%

02:00 PM US MBA Mortgage Applications FEB/17                -7.7%

02:00 PM US MBA Mortgage Refinance Index FEB/17                      480.5

02:00 PM US MBA Mortgage Market Index FEB/17              230.4

02:00 PM US MBA Purchase Index FEB/17                179.6

03:30 PM CA New Housing Price Index MoM JAN                 0%                   -0.3%

03:30 PM CA New Housing Price Index YoY JAN             3.9%                2.9%

03:55 PM US Redbook YoY FEB/18                 4.9%

09:00 PM US FOMC Minutes

11:30 PM US API Crude Oil Stock Change FEB/17                 10.507M

Wednesday’s earnings reports: ALLE KALU MNST TOL FAT BRY BIDU GKOS SM IMAX

Thursday, February 23

01:30 AM US Fed Williams Speech

02:30 AM AU Building Capital Expenditure QoQ Q4             0.5%                0.8%

02:30 AM AU Plant Machinery Capital Expenditure QoQ Q4            -1.6%              1.2%

02:30 AM AU Private Capital Expenditure QoQ Q4               -0.6%   1.3%    1.5%

03:00 AM KR Interest Rate Decision              3.5%    3.5%    3.5%

04:10 AM SG Current Account Q4                  $30.38B                       $28B

07:00 AM SG Core Inflation Rate YoY JAN                 5.1%    5.6%    5.0%

07:15 AM AU RBA Bullock Speech

07:15 AM AU RBA Cagliarini Speech

11:30 AM GB BoE L Mann Speech

12:00 PM EA Inflation Rate YoY Final JAN                  9.2%    8.6%    8.5%

12:00 PM EA Inflation Rate MoM Final JAN               -0.4%   -0.2%   -0.4%

12:00 PM EA Core Inflation Rate YoY Final JAN                     5.2%    5.2%    5.2%

12:00 PM EA CPI Final JAN                 120.52             120.0

12:45 PM GB BoE Cunliffe Speech

01:00 PM CA CFIB Business Barometer FEB              51.4                 49

01:00 PM GB CBI Distributive Trades FEB                  -23                   -14

03:30 PM CA Average Weekly Earnings YoY DEC                  4.2%                3.0%

03:30 PM US Initial Jobless Claims FEB/18                194K    200K    197.0K

03:30 PM US GDP Price Index QoQ 2nd Est Q4                     4.4%    3.5%    3.5%

03:30 PM US GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est Q4                   3.2%    2.9%    2.8%

03:30 PM US Chicago Fed National Activity Index JAN          -0.49                -0.25

03:30 PM US PCE Prices QoQ 2nd Est Q4                  4.3%                3.2%

03:30 PM US Core PCE Prices QoQ 2nd Est Q4                      4.7%    3.9%    3.9%

03:30 PM US Real Consumer Spending QoQ 2nd Est Q4       2.3%                2.0%

03:30 PM US GDP Sales QoQ 2nd Est Q4                   4.5%                1.4%

03:30 PM US Jobless Claims 4-week Average FEB/18           189.5K             192.25K

03:30 PM US Continuing Jobless Claims FEB/11                    1696K              1691.0K

05:30 PM US EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change FEB/17                        -100Bcf

05:50 PM US Fed Bostic Speech

06:00 PM US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change FEB/17                 2.317M

06:00 PM US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change FEB/17                16.283M

06:00 PM US EIA Distillate Stocks Change FEB/17                 -1.285M

06:00 PM US EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change FEB/17             -0.349M

06:00 PM US EIA Gasoline Production Change FEB/17                      -0.004M

06:00 PM US EIA Crude Oil Imports Change FEB/17             -1.072M

06:00 PM US EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change FEB/17              0.659M

06:00 PM US EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change FEB/17              -0.155M

06:00 PM US Kansas Fed Composite Index FEB                      -1                     2

06:00 PM US Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index FEB               -4                     1

06:00 PM US EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change FEB/17                     -0.383M

07:00 PM CA 10-Year Bond Auction               2.869%

Thursday’s earnings reports: BABA ALG ALTR KTOS ADSK AGIO BALY BBWI BKNG CARS ZETA BYND WBD NKLA CVNA DISH MNKD

Friday, February 24

01:30 AM JP Inflation Rate YoY JAN               4%                   4.2%

01:30 AM JP Core Inflation Rate YoY JAN                  4%       4.2%    4.1%

01:30 AM JP Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY JAN                  3%                   3%

01:30 AM JP Inflation Rate MoM JAN                    0.3%                0.2%

01:50 AM JP Foreign Bond Investment FEB/18                      ¥716.5B

01:50 AM JP Stock Investment by Foreigners FEB/18                        ¥105.1B

02:01 AM GB Gfk Consumer Confidence FEB                        -45       -42       -42

02:01 AM GB Car Production YoY JAN                       -17.9%             0.5%

05:35 AM JP 3-Month Bill Auction                  -0.1526%

07:00 AM SG Industrial Production MoM JAN                       3.2%    0%       0.5%

07:00 AM SG Industrial Production YoY JAN              -3.1%   4%       -0.7%

09:00 AM DE GfK Consumer Confidence MAR                      -33.9    -30.4    -34

09:00 AM DE GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q4                      0.5%    -0.2%   -0.2%

09:00 AM DE GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q4                1.4%    1.1%    1.1%

09:45 AM FR Consumer Confidence FEB                    80        81        81

03:30 PM CA Manufacturing Sales MoM Prel JAN                -1.5%               -0.2%

03:30 PM CA Wholesale Sales MoM Prel JAN             -0.8%               -0.2%

03:30 PM US Core PCE Price Index MoM JAN             0.3%    0.4%            0.3%

03:30 PM US Personal Income MoM JAN                  0.2%    0.9%    0.7%

03:30 PM US Personal Spending MoM JAN                -0.2%   1.3%    1.1%

03:30 PM US PCE Price Index MoM JAN                    0.1%                0.3%

03:30 PM US PCE Price Index YoY JAN                       5%                   4.8%

03:30 PM US Core PCE Price Index YoY JAN              4.4%    4.3%    4.3%

05:00 PM US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final FEB        64.9     66.4     66.4

05:00 PM US New Home Sales MoM JAN                  2.3%                0.4%

05:00 PM US New Home Sales JAN                0.616M            0.619M            0.615M

05:00 PM US Michigan Consumer Expectations Final FEB      62.7     62.3     62.3

05:00 PM US Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Final FEB 2.9%           2.9%

05:00 PM US Michigan Current Conditions Final FEB                        68.4     72.6     72.6

05:00 PM US Michigan Inflation Expectations Final FEB       3.9%                4.2%

05:15 PM US Fed Mester Speech

05:15 PM US Fed Jefferson Speech

06:00 PM CA Budget Balance DEC                 C$-3.38B                     C$0.6B

06:30 PM GB BoE Tenreyro Speech

08:00 PM US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count FEB/24             760

08:00 PM US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count FEB/24                 607

US 2023 US Monetary Policy Forum US Building Permits Final JAN              1.337M

US Building Permits MoM Final JAN                  -1.0%               0.1%

Friday’s earnings reports: ALG ACMR TBLA VICI MAIN CUBE

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