February 24, 2024
London, UK

Key events in the Week 9/15-1-2023

PPI PMI Fed CPI

The week start with risk-on sentiment as investors speculate after the NFP data that Fed will not be aggressive on rate hikes. Inflationary pressures are weakening and so the focus this week will be on the CPI figures.

S&P 500 ended the week at the highest level since December 15, while Dax continues to outperform.

Monday, January 9

09:45 AM FR Balance of Trade NOV              €-12.15B                      €-10.5B

09:45 AM FR Current Account NOV               €-3.8B              €-2.9B

09:45 AM FR Exports NOV                  €51.44B                       €50.9B

09:45 AM FR Imports NOV                 €63.59B                       €61.4B

11:00 AM IT Unemployment Rate NOV                     7.8%                7.8%

11:00 AM SG Foreign Exchange Reserves DEC          S$399.1B                     S$ 410.8B

12:00 PM EA Unemployment Rate NOV                    6.5%    6.5%    6.5%

12:30 PM DE 6-Month Bubill Auction             -0.5865%

12:45 PM EU 20-Year Bond Auction               2.845%

12:45 PM EU 3-Year Bond Auction                 2.530%

01:00 PM GB BBA Mortgage Rate DEC                      5.88%              6%

02:00 PM MX Inflation Rate MoM DEC                     0.58%  0.42%  0.45%

02:00 PM MX Inflation Rate YoY DEC                        7.8%    7.85%  7.89%

02:00 PM MX Core Inflation Rate YoY DEC                8.51%  8.35%  7.98%

02:00 PM MX Core Inflation Rate MoM DEC             0.45%  0.65%  0.31%

03:30 PM CA Building Permits MoM NOV                 -1.4%               0.6%

04:00 PM FR 3-Month BTF Auction                2.096%

04:00 PM FR 12-Month BTF Auction              2.824%

04:00 PM FR 6-Month BTF Auction                2.432%

06:00 PM US Consumer Inflation Expectations DEC              5.2%                5.2%

06:30 PM US 3-Month Bill Auction                 4.410%

06:30 PM US 6-Month Bill Auction                 4.635%

10:00 PM US Consumer Credit Change NOV             $27.08B           $24B    $26B

Monday’s earnings reports: AZZ KYN TLRY EBS KLDO

Tuesday, January 10

01:30 AM JP Tokyo Core CPI YoY DEC                        3.6%    3.8%    3.7%

01:30 AM JP Tokyo CPI YoY DEC                     3.8%                3.9%

01:30 AM JP Household Spending YoY NOV               1.2%    0.5%    0.8%

01:30 AM JP Household Spending MoM NOV                        1.1%    -0.5%   -0.8%

01:30 AM JP Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY DEC               1.2%                1.3%

02:01 AM GB BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY DEC                  4.1%                2.5%

08:00 AM SA Industrial Production YoY NOV             14.1%              12%

09:00 AM TR Unemployment Rate NOV                    10.2%              10.3%

09:00 AM TR Industrial Production YoY NOV             2.5%    -0.95% -1.2%

09:00 AM TR Industrial Production MoM NOV                      2.4%                0.6%

09:00 AM TR Participation Rate NOV                        53.5%              53.7%

09:45 AM FR Industrial Production MoM NOV                      -2.6%   0.9%    0.6%

10:00 AM ES Industrial Production YoY NOV             2.5%                1.3%

01:00 PM US NFIB Business Optimism Index DEC                  91.9                 85

03:55 PM US Redbook YoY JAN/07                 10.2%

04:00 PM US Fed Chair Powell Speech

05:00 PM US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism JAN                   42.9                 43

05:00 PM US Wholesale Inventories MoM NOV                    0.5%    1%       1%

08:00 PM US 3-Year Note Auction                  4.093%

11:30 PM US API Crude Oil Stock Change JAN/06                 3.298M

Tuesday’s earnings reports: BBBY SAR SNX NOTV

Wednesday, January 11

01:50 AM JP Foreign Exchange Reserves DEC                       $1226.3B

02:30 AM AU Monthly CPI Indicator NOV                  6.9%    7.3%    7.5%

02:30 AM AU Retail Sales MoM NOV                        -0.2%   0.6%    0.3%

07:00 AM JP Leading Economic Index Prel NOV                    98.6                 98

09:00 AM TR Current Account NOV               $-0.359B          $-4.1B  $-3.8B

11:00 AM IT Retail Sales MoM NOV              -0.4%               -0.9%

11:00 AM IT Retail Sales YoY NOV                 1.3%                0.5%

02:00 PM BR Retail Sales MoM NOV             0.4%    -0.5%   -0.3%

02:00 PM BR Retail Sales YoY NOV                2.7%    1.5%    1.9%

02:00 PM MX Industrial Production YoY NOV                        3.1%                2.4%

02:00 PM MX Industrial Production MoM NOV                     0.4%                -0.2%

02:00 PM US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate JAN/06                       6.58%

02:00 PM US MBA Mortgage Refinance Index JAN/06                      310.9

02:00 PM US MBA Mortgage Market Index JAN/06              184.5

02:00 PM US MBA Purchase Index JAN/06                160.2

02:00 PM US MBA Mortgage Applications JAN/06                -10.3%

05:30 PM US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change JAN/06                 -0.346M

05:30 PM US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change JAN/06                1.694M

05:30 PM US EIA Distillate Stocks Change JAN/06                 -1.427M

05:30 PM US EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change JAN/06             -0.476M

05:30 PM US EIA Gasoline Production Change JAN/06                      -1.678M

05:30 PM US EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change JAN/06              0.244M

05:30 PM US EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change JAN/06              -1.05M

05:30 PM US EIA Crude Oil Imports Change JAN/06             -1.282M

05:30 PM US EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change JAN/06                     -2.329M

Wednesday’s earnings reports: INLB BMRA KBH TC

Thursday, January 12

Thursday it is CPI day and the expectations are for yearly CPI in December at 6.5% well below the November reading of 7.1%.

01:50 AM JP Current Account NOV                ¥-64.1B            ¥471.1B           ¥490B

01:50 AM JP Bank Lending YoY DEC                 2.7%                2.8%

02:30 AM AU Balance of Trade NOV             A$12.217B       A$10.8B           A$10.9B

02:30 AM AU Exports MoM NOV                 -1%

02:30 AM AU Imports MoM NOV                   -1%

03:30 AM CN Inflation Rate YoY DEC             1.6%    1.8%    2%

03:30 AM CN Inflation Rate MoM DEC                      -0.2%   -0.1%   0.1%

03:30 AM CN PPI YoY DEC                  -1.3%   -0.1%   -0.2%

07:00 AM JP Eco Watchers Survey Current DEC                    48.1                 48.6

07:00 AM JP Eco Watchers Survey Outlook DEC                    45.1                 46

09:00 AM TR Retail Sales MoM NOV             1.4%                0.5%

09:00 AM TR Retail Sales YoY NOV                9.5%                8.9%

01:30 PM TR Foreign Exchange Reserves JAN/06                  $82.91B

03:30 PM US Inflation Rate YoY DEC              7.1%    6.5%    6.7%

03:30 PM US Core Inflation Rate YoY DEC                 6%       5.7%    5.8%

03:30 PM US Inflation Rate MoM DEC                       0.1%    0%       -0.1%

03:30 PM US Core Inflation Rate MoM DEC              0.2%    0.3%    0.2%

03:30 PM US Initial Jobless Claims JAN/07                204K    220K    215K

03:30 PM US CPI DEC             297.711           296.815           298

03:30 PM US Jobless Claims 4-week Average JAN/07 213.75K                     214.5K

03:30 PM US Continuing Jobless Claims DEC/31                   1694K              1691K

03:45 PM DE Current Account NOV                 €5.9B               €8.8B

05:30 PM US EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change JAN/06                        -221Bcf

07:00 PM US Quarterly Grain Stocks – Corn DEC                   1.377B

07:00 PM US Quarterly Grain Stocks – Soy DEC                     0.274B

07:00 PM US Quarterly Grain Stocks – Wheat DEC                1.776B

07:00 PM US WASDE Report

Thursday’s earnings reports: CNBB NTIC TRX SODI OGI RFIL

Friday, January 13

 01:50 AM JP Foreign Bond Investment DEC/31                    ¥-459.5B

01:50 AM JP Stock Investment by Foreigners DEC/31                       ¥-265.1B

01:50 AM JP Foreign Bond Investment JAN/07

01:50 AM JP Stock Investment by Foreigners JAN/07

02:30 AM AU Home Loans MoM NOV                       -2.9%   -3.25% -2.3%

02:30 AM AU Investment Lending for Homes NOV               -2.2%               -1.2%

03:00 AM KR Interest Rate Decision                      3.25%              3.5%

05:00 AM CN Balance of Trade DEC              $69.84B           $76.2B $ 80B

05:00 AM CN Exports YoY DEC                       -8.7%   -10%    -3.2%

05:00 AM CN Imports YoY DEC                      -10.6% -9.8%   -4.4%

05:35 AM JP 3-Month Bill Auction                  -0.1206%

05:35 AM JP 5-Year JGB Auction                    0.121%

09:00 AM GB GDP MoM NOV                        0.5%    -0.3%   -0.2%

09:00 AM GB Industrial Production MoM NOV                     0%       -0.3%   -0.2%

09:00 AM GB GDP 3-Month Avg NOV                 -0.3%   -0.4%   -0.2%

09:00 AM GB Goods Trade Balance NOV                   £-14.476B                    £-15.2B

09:00 AM GB Goods Trade Balance Non-EU NOV £-4.823B                      £-5.3B

09:00 AM GB Manufacturing Production MoM NOV                        0.7%    -0.2%   0.1%

09:00 AM GB Industrial Production YoY NOV                        -2.4%   -3.2%   -2.8%

09:00 AM GB Balance of Trade NOV             £-1.785B                      £-1.9B

09:00 AM GB Construction Output YoY NOV             7.4%                5.2%

09:00 AM GB Manufacturing Production YoY NOV               -4.6%   -5.1%   -4.6%

09:00 AM GB GDP YoY NOV                 1.5%    0.3%    0.6%

09:45 AM FR Inflation Rate YoY Final DEC                 6.2%    5.9%    5.9%

09:45 AM FR Inflation Rate MoM Final DEC              0.3%    -0.1%   -0.1%

09:45 AM FR Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM Final DEC     0.4%    -0.1%   -0.1%

09:45 AM FR Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY Final DEC        7.1%    6.7%    6.7%

10:00 AM ES CPI DEC              109.7               110

10:00 AM ES Core Inflation Rate YoY Final DEC                    6.3%                6.9%

10:00 AM ES Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM Final DEC     -0.3%               0.1%

10:00 AM ES Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY Final DEC        6.7%                5.6%

10:00 AM ES Inflation Rate YoY Final DEC                 6.8%                5.8%

10:00 AM ES Inflation Rate MoM Final DEC              -0.1%               0.3%

11:00 AM DE Full Year GDP Growth 2022                  2.6%    1.9%    1.7%

11:00 AM IT Industrial Production MoM NOV                       -1%      0%       -0.5%

11:00 AM IT Industrial Production YoY NOV                      -1.6%               -1.9%

12:00 PM EA Industrial Production MoM NOV                      -2%      0.2%    0.1%

12:00 PM EA Balance of Trade NOV              €-26.5B                        €-33.4B

12:00 PM EA Industrial Production YoY NOV             3.4%    0.5%    0.8%

01:00 PM RU Vehicle Sales YoY DEC              -63%                -66%

01:30 PM IN Foreign Exchange Reserves JAN/06                  $562.85B

01:30 PM IN Deposit Growth YoY DEC/30                  9.4%

01:30 PM IN Bank Loan Growth YoY DEC/30             17.4%

02:00 PM BR IBC-BR Economic Activity NOV             -0.05% -0.3%   -0.13%

02:20 PM IN Balance of Trade DEC                $-19.89B                      $ -23B

02:20 PM IN Imports DEC                   $51.88B                       $ 55.9B

02:20 PM IN Exports DEC                   $31.99B                       $ 32.9B

02:30 PM US Fed Harker Speech

03:00 PM RU Foreign Exchange Reserves DEC          $567.3B                       $ 518B

03:00 PM GB NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker DEC                     -0.3%               -0.1%

03:30 PM US Import Prices MoM DEC                 -0.6%   -0.8%   -0.6%

03:30 PM US Export Prices MoM DEC                       -0.3%   -0.6%   -0.5%

03:30 PM US Export Prices YoY DEC              6.3%                5.6%

03:30 PM US Import Prices YoY DEC              2.7%                2.1%

05:00 PM US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel JAN                      59.7     60        59

05:00 PM US Michigan Inflation Expectations Prel JAN           4.4%                4.4%

05:00 PM US Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations Prel JAN 2.9%                        2.9%

05:00 PM US Michigan Current Conditions Prel JAN             59.4     60        58.8

05:00 PM US Michigan Consumer Expectations Prel JAN                  59.9     60        59

06:00 PM RU Inflation Rate YoY DEC                      12%     12.2%  11.6%

06:00 PM RU Inflation Rate MoM DEC                      0.4%    1%       0.5%

08:00 PM US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count JAN/13                 618

08:00 PM US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count JAN/13             772

Friday’s earnings reports: BAC DAL FRC BK BLK WFC JPM C UNH. Analysts expect Bank of America to report EPS of $0.79. Delta Airlines is expected to report earnings per share of $1.34. Wells Fargo’s EPS expectations are $0.63, while analysts expect JPMorgan Chase to report EPS of $3.12. Citigroup is expected to report EPS of $1.21. UnitedHealth Group will also report on Friday; analysts’ forecasts are for EPS of $5.17.

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