The gold price is $4,205.00 per ounce, having eased slightly but still holding near multi-week highs after a rally in recent months. Precious metals as a group have performed exceptionally well this year, with gold, silver, and copper all reaching new record levels.
Gold (XAUUSD) has rallied strongly in 2025, gaining 59.98%. While the precious metal has retreated from the October highs at $4,381.48 per ounce. Both market fundamentals and technical indicators continue to support a positive outlook, and overall sentiment among analysts remains firmly optimistic.
Gold prices are still being driven by familiar forces such as high inflation, geopolitical tensions, and a weaker U.S. dollar, along with aggressive gold buying by central banks worldwide, which adds further upward pressure.
Central Banks Strong Gold buying
Central banks bought a record over 1,000 tonnes in both 2022 and 2023, and 2024–2025 are on pace for another 700–900 tonnes per year, this long-term demand absorbs huge amounts of physical gold and removes it from the market. The third-quarter supply-demand data shows central banks remain significant net buyers, a trend that started back in 2022. Based on recent World Gold Council data, central banks have continued heavy gold accumulation and bought a net 53 tonnes in October, 36% higher m/m and the largest monthly net demand YTD.
The National Bank of Poland purchased 16t in October, lifted its gold reserves to 531 tonnes – 26% of total reserves at end-October. The National Bank of Poland increased its target gold allocation to 30%. The National Bank of Poland (83t) continues to be the largest official-sector gold buyer, Year To-Day with double the purchases of the next largest buyer, Kazakhstan (41t). Meanwhile, the Central Bank of Brazil expanded its gold reserves for a second consecutive month, adding 16 tonnes in October after purchasing 15 tonnes in September. Brazil now holds 161 tonnes, equal to roughly 6% of its total reserves.
The Central Banks of: Uzbekistan bought 9t, Indonesia bought 4t, Turkey bought 3t, Czechia purchased 2t, Kyrgyz Republic purchased 2t, China bought >1t, Ghana bought >1t, Kazakhstan purchased>1t and the Philippines purchased >1t.
The persistent macroeconomic uncertainty implies that these Central Banks purchases are strategic rather than opportunistic, reinforcing gold’s importance in the portfolio allocation.
A new Player in Town: Tether stablecoin
A new player has entered the 2025 gold rush, supporting the bullish bias for the metal. The biggest stablecoin is now competing with central banks for the precious metal: Tether stablecoin purchased 26 tonnes of gold in the third quarter of 2025. Tether’s (USDT) gold purchases reflected almost 12% of total central bank purchases and 2% of the global gold demand. The gold purchases strengthened from the second quarter of 2025, when Tether bought 24 tonnes of gold sending the price of gold above $3000. This pushed Tether’s (USDT) total gold reserves to a record 116 tonnes, making it the largest gold portfolio outside central banks.
Geopolitical and economic uncertainty: Gold’s role as a safe-haven asset is reinforced during times of political turmoil, economic crises, and ongoing wars (Ukraine, Middle East, Venezuela. Whenever global risk rises, investors and wealthy families rush into gold seeking safety. An end to the Russia-Ukraine war could temporarily weigh on gold prices,
Persistent Inflation: Inflation came down from 9% in 2022 to 3% in September 2025, but is still above most central-bank targets. While gold is often considered an inflation hedge, the relationship is complex. It tends to hold value during long-term inflation, but can also be volatile in the short term. Less Fed easing in 2026 than markets expect might temper the bullish scenario.
Investment and industrial demand: Demand for gold from ETFs, physical bullion, and jewelry remains elevated. Chinese retail investors have been buying record amounts of gold bars and coins since 2023 amid fears of real-estate crash, and capital controls. India’s wedding season, cultural buying, and rupee weakness keep physical demand very strong. Higher industrial demand, though a smaller percentage of overall use, also impacts the price. On the other side Gold mining production has been essentially flat for almost a decade. Discovering new big gold deposits is rare, and new mines take 10–15 years to come online. Supply grows less than 1% per year while demand (especially from Asia and central banks) grows much faster.
US dollar weakness: Even though the dollar index is still relatively strong, the long-term trend worries traders. The fear of eventual US dollar debasement or loss of reserve-currency status are prompting investors to shift toward gold. Because gold is denominated in US dollars, a weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for foreign investors, often driving up demand and price. The opposite is also true—a strengthening dollar generally creates downward pressure on gold.
Gold Price Technical Analysis
In late November, gold saw some pullbacks, gathering bullish momentum for a fresh push higher. A new trading range has been established between $3920 to $4740. Gold trades at $4205 keeping the bullish bias intact and targeting higher levels. Initial resistance for the precious metal stands at $4264 the high from yesterday’s trading session. If the bulls manage to break that level then the way to the all-time high at $4381 will be open. A clean break above this zone could trigger the next leg higher.
Many analysts see levels up to $5000 and even $5200. Bank of America hiked its price forecast for gold to $5,000 an ounce in 2026. Goldman Sachs projecting gold could reach about $4,900 by December 2026.
On the downside, strong support stands at $4110, the low from November 25th. Strong buying interest awaits at $4047 where the 50-day simple moving average stands. A break below will give the upper hand to the bears targeting $3884, the low from October 6th.
Nikolas has been involved in the finance industry for over fifteen years spanning across Europe and USA with a depth of knowledge and experience within many aspects of the financial markets. Nikolas gained several years experience with some of the Europe’s leading Brokers, as equity analyst, and trader managing accounts for both Private and Corporate Investors. He enjoys both the fundamental and technical aspects of trading focusing on stock markets and all FX majors. Currently, Nikolas provides analysis and comments to online financial publications. Educational background in Economics (BSc), and Finance (MSc).
